Abstract “How much development space does China's auto market have and how fast it should be developed? I think there is still huge room for development in China's auto industry, and it can almost double. That is to say, I think China's auto production is likely to reach every year. 50 million vehicles...
"How much development space does China's auto market have and how fast it should be developed? I think there is still huge room for development in China's auto industry, and it can be nearly doubled. That is to say, I think China's auto production is likely to reach 5,000 per year. Ten thousand vehicles sold 40 million vehicles in China and 10 million vehicles overseas, an increase of more than 20 million vehicles. Dong Yang, executive vice president of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, once again held a discussion on the future capacity of the automotive industry at the 2017 China Automotive Forum. Is 50 million vehicles the "ceiling" of the automotive industry?
In 2016, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 28 million units, ranking first in the world for eight consecutive years. In 2016, China's automobile production and sales were 28.119 million and 28.528 million, respectively. Last year, the automobile industry realized a main business income of 8018.58 billion yuan. The automobile industry is the pillar industry of the national economy. The economic scale of the automobile industry accounts for about 2% of the total economic volume of China.
The pillar position of the automobile industry in the national economy has become increasingly prominent. In the recently released "Long-term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry", the expectation that China's automobile production will reach 35 million vehicles in 2025 means that Dong Yang believes that the capacity of China's automobile industry will reach 2025. The total amount of the year is about 1.5 times.
The expectation of selling 10 million vehicles overseas is also very "optimistic". According to statistics, last year China's automobile exports totaled 811,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. And 10 million means that it will grow nearly 12 times.
According to the report of the automobile headline APP reporter, at the end of last year, Liu Ming, director of the Automobile Industry Division of the National Information Center, also mentioned the corresponding judgment when interviewed by the domestic media.
He pointed out that from the total amount, China's current overall car consumption is about 28% of the global total. Over the past decade or so, 70% of the world's car sales have increased in China. At the same time, the number of Chinese cars is second only to the United States, ranking second in the world.
He stressed that in the future, the number of thousands of cars in China will reach around 400, which is a foreseeable result. From the experience of vehicle saturation in mature countries, China's annual sales of automobiles is expected to reach 40 million by 2025.
At the China Automotive Brand Development Forum in September last year, Zhao Fuquan, Dean of the Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy Research Institute of Tsinghua University, gave a more optimistic forecast.
He predicted that "the Chinese auto market is promising. The sales of 26 million vehicles this year will not be a problem. The total demand in 2030 will reach 65 million, of which 40 million will be purchased privately and 25 million will be shared by cars."
But even more striking is the winner of a Nobel Prize. At the Chengdu Global Automotive Forum in 2010, Edward Prescott, a 2004 Nobel laureate in economics and a professor of economics at Arizona State University, has placed a Huge "satellite", "China's automobile production reached 75 million in 2030."
In the automotive circle, there has always been a limit to the growth of the automotive industry. The forecast for car ownership is closely related to the number of people in possession.
At present, there are three views on the limit value of China's car ownership: The first view is that China's per capita car ownership can only be slightly higher than the world average car ownership, that is, the number of thousand people is 200; the second view is that The number of cars for thousands of people in China will reach the level of Europe and Japan, that is, the number of thousand people will be about 500. The third view is that it is a compromise between the above two viewpoints, and that the number of cars owned by thousands of people in China is 300. .
Obviously, although 50 million vehicles seem to be amazing, 75 million vehicles are currently the "satellite" with the largest limit on Chinese cars.
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