Business News Agency August 10 News Black gold gold crisis before Labor Yan fly: Gold prices hit new highs, approaching 1800 US dollars / ounce trend; New York crude oil fell below 80 US dollars / barrel continued to explore, Brent crude also failed to hold 100 USD/barrel mark.
Since July 26, New York crude oil has turned its way out of a month-long consolidation and turned around, so far it has fallen by 25%; and the New York gold rally started earlier, leaving the market with an eye out since July 4. The tongue of the eleven consecutive yang. After a slight revision, it was lifted at a more rapid rate on August 2. The highest record so far has reached 1772.2 US dollars per ounce, which is also closer to 20% than July 4.
Analysts generally believe that the downgrade of the U.S. rating is the "third party" in which black gold is parting ways. On August 5th, Standard & Poor's lowered the US credit rating from AAA to AA+ and the credit outlook was negative. S&P said that the political system in the United States has become unstable, and the deficit reduction agreement reached in the week of the 5th was not large enough. In addition, Moody's also warned that if the United States does not continue to reduce the deficit, Moody's will downgrade the US credit rating.
For the latter trend, some analysts said that the fundamental factors that caused the continued rise in the price of gold have quietly changed. The price of gold will approach the “crazy epilogue†of the band due to the temporary “treason†of investment demand; and there is no positive factor in the market. Below, the price of crude oil ** is likely to be set at around $ 80/barrel.
Xi Jinzhi, an analyst at Xizhi Zhijin Company, believes that the two major factors that support the rise of gold prices in the fundamentals have quietly changed: First, the asset price bubble triggered by the long-term easing monetary environment in Europe, the United States, Japan, and other advanced economies. This factor ended at the end of the US QE2 as scheduled. Although the U.S. national ceiling was later raised again and it is possible to continue to launch QE3, the EU has also taken the initiative to increase its share of European debt, and Japan has again issued 10 trillion yen to stabilize the yen exchange rate. However, the negative realities such as the stagnation of the global economy, the disengagement of capital from the real economy, and the sharp drop in effective demand exposed by these measures all have a significant inhibitory effect on the rise in asset prices. Merchandise such as silver, petroleum, and copper has apparently declined since its adjustment in early May. Therefore, global inflation expectations are no longer the main factor supporting the rise in gold prices.
Second, due to the promotion of market risk aversion, a large amount of funds gathered in the near future as the “only†safe haven of gold, causing a rapid rise in the price of gold in a very short period of time. However, as the price of gold rises rapidly in the short term, transaction costs are constantly rising, and the efficiency of capital participation in gold investment is continuously decreasing. Coupled with the panic drop in the global capital market in the past two weeks, the international players in the gold market are also under pressure. The demand for hedging will gradually decrease due to the increase in participation costs and the outflow of funds. It can be predicted that the second largest factor supporting the continued rise in gold prices is quietly undergoing changes due to higher prices.
“The recent changes in crude oil prices will be dictated by the economic and political situation in Europe and the United States.†Zhao Jingmin, an oil analyst at the business community, predicts that crude oil prices will likely be priced at around US$80/barrel in the absence of favorable conditions in the market. . She believes that the current European and American debt problems and weak economic growth will continue to pose pressure on oil prices in the short term. In August-September, international crude oil will face a period of adjustment. After the negative momentum of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States is over, crude oil may start to fluctuate in October, which is roughly the same in the past two years. However, this year's situation may be different, and the trend is inevitable.
However, more international investment banks continue to watch gold prices. Morgan Stanley has continued to strongly recommend buying gold. He also said that concerns about debt issues and slowdown in growth in Europe and the United States linger, coupled with real interest rates remain at historical lows, high demand for safe-haven commodities will continue; Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast on August 8 , The three-month, six-month and twelve-month gold prices are expected to increase from US$1,565, US$1,635 and US$1,730 respectively to US$1,645, US$1,730 and US$1,860; Barclays Capital, based on technical analysis, predicts that gold will be worth $734/oz and then $1,837/oz. The weak stock market continues to boost precious metals.
Since July 26, New York crude oil has turned its way out of a month-long consolidation and turned around, so far it has fallen by 25%; and the New York gold rally started earlier, leaving the market with an eye out since July 4. The tongue of the eleven consecutive yang. After a slight revision, it was lifted at a more rapid rate on August 2. The highest record so far has reached 1772.2 US dollars per ounce, which is also closer to 20% than July 4.
Analysts generally believe that the downgrade of the U.S. rating is the "third party" in which black gold is parting ways. On August 5th, Standard & Poor's lowered the US credit rating from AAA to AA+ and the credit outlook was negative. S&P said that the political system in the United States has become unstable, and the deficit reduction agreement reached in the week of the 5th was not large enough. In addition, Moody's also warned that if the United States does not continue to reduce the deficit, Moody's will downgrade the US credit rating.
For the latter trend, some analysts said that the fundamental factors that caused the continued rise in the price of gold have quietly changed. The price of gold will approach the “crazy epilogue†of the band due to the temporary “treason†of investment demand; and there is no positive factor in the market. Below, the price of crude oil ** is likely to be set at around $ 80/barrel.
Xi Jinzhi, an analyst at Xizhi Zhijin Company, believes that the two major factors that support the rise of gold prices in the fundamentals have quietly changed: First, the asset price bubble triggered by the long-term easing monetary environment in Europe, the United States, Japan, and other advanced economies. This factor ended at the end of the US QE2 as scheduled. Although the U.S. national ceiling was later raised again and it is possible to continue to launch QE3, the EU has also taken the initiative to increase its share of European debt, and Japan has again issued 10 trillion yen to stabilize the yen exchange rate. However, the negative realities such as the stagnation of the global economy, the disengagement of capital from the real economy, and the sharp drop in effective demand exposed by these measures all have a significant inhibitory effect on the rise in asset prices. Merchandise such as silver, petroleum, and copper has apparently declined since its adjustment in early May. Therefore, global inflation expectations are no longer the main factor supporting the rise in gold prices.
Second, due to the promotion of market risk aversion, a large amount of funds gathered in the near future as the “only†safe haven of gold, causing a rapid rise in the price of gold in a very short period of time. However, as the price of gold rises rapidly in the short term, transaction costs are constantly rising, and the efficiency of capital participation in gold investment is continuously decreasing. Coupled with the panic drop in the global capital market in the past two weeks, the international players in the gold market are also under pressure. The demand for hedging will gradually decrease due to the increase in participation costs and the outflow of funds. It can be predicted that the second largest factor supporting the continued rise in gold prices is quietly undergoing changes due to higher prices.
“The recent changes in crude oil prices will be dictated by the economic and political situation in Europe and the United States.†Zhao Jingmin, an oil analyst at the business community, predicts that crude oil prices will likely be priced at around US$80/barrel in the absence of favorable conditions in the market. . She believes that the current European and American debt problems and weak economic growth will continue to pose pressure on oil prices in the short term. In August-September, international crude oil will face a period of adjustment. After the negative momentum of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States is over, crude oil may start to fluctuate in October, which is roughly the same in the past two years. However, this year's situation may be different, and the trend is inevitable.
However, more international investment banks continue to watch gold prices. Morgan Stanley has continued to strongly recommend buying gold. He also said that concerns about debt issues and slowdown in growth in Europe and the United States linger, coupled with real interest rates remain at historical lows, high demand for safe-haven commodities will continue; Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast on August 8 , The three-month, six-month and twelve-month gold prices are expected to increase from US$1,565, US$1,635 and US$1,730 respectively to US$1,645, US$1,730 and US$1,860; Barclays Capital, based on technical analysis, predicts that gold will be worth $734/oz and then $1,837/oz. The weak stock market continues to boost precious metals.
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