Abstract After two consecutive quarters of economic slowdown, China's GDP growth rebounded sharply to 7.8% in the third quarter of 2013, marking the highest level of the year so far. Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance at Renmin University, noted that the Chinese economy showed signs of recovery during this period.
The strong GDP growth came as a welcome relief after two quarters of decline, and it was seen as a positive signal for the upcoming Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in November. According to Zhao, the improved performance not only created a favorable environment for the session but also signaled momentum behind the ongoing reform agenda. The new leadership had been pushing forward with various policy initiatives, and this economic rebound appeared to reflect their efforts.
The National Bureau of Statistics released comprehensive data on October 18, showing a broad-based recovery. In addition to the GDP rebound, industrial output in the first three quarters increased by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Investment and consumption also saw modest gains, rising by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively. These figures suggested a more balanced recovery across different sectors.
Another indicator, the "Keqiang Index," which tracks power generation, railway freight volume, and long-term credit growth, also showed a positive trend. Tang Jianwei, a senior macro analyst at Bank of Communications, pointed out that the index had been rising for four consecutive months since June. Given its lead over GDP, this bodes well for continued economic expansion in the fourth quarter.
The improvement in economic indicators was partly attributed to a series of government reforms. Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighted that the government had introduced new methods of macroeconomic management, clarified regulatory boundaries, and boosted business confidence. Reforms such as decentralization and interest rate liberalization were also contributing to a more dynamic economic environment.
However, some analysts cautioned that the rebound might be partly due to a low base from the previous year. Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank, pointed out that private investment remained weak, and corporate profits were still under pressure. Despite the improvement, the economy was still in a phase of "weak recovery with repeated fluctuations." Some September data, such as a drop in industrial output and a sharp decline in electricity consumption, hinted at underlying challenges.
With the third-quarter results offering a temporary reprieve, market attention is now shifting toward the upcoming Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in November. This meeting is expected to address major reform issues and could potentially unlock further growth opportunities.
Tang Jianwei noted that China’s past economic cycles have been driven by key reforms, including the establishment of a socialist market economy and WTO accession. The current plenary session aims to deepen these reforms, potentially unlocking another wave of growth.
Still, Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the School of Economics at Renmin University, warned that major reforms often come with short-term challenges. While the market's optimism about the session has contributed to the recent recovery, the long-term impact remains uncertain. He predicted that the fourth quarter might see a slight slowdown, with a more significant drop in the first quarter of 2014.
Despite these concerns, Sheng Laiyun emphasized that the Chinese economy is likely to remain stable overall. Even if growth slows in the coming quarters, the long-term outlook remains positive, supported by ongoing structural reforms and sound fundamentals.Heilongjiang Junhe Building Materials Technology Co., Ltd , https://www.junhejiancai.com