"Because there are still many issues that need to be discussed in the "Plan", it may be formally announced until March." On January 5, 2011, Chen Quanshi, director of the Electric Vehicles Branch of the China Automotive Engineering Society, disclosed to reporters. Planning has been postponed again.
Chen said that the "planning" full name is "energy-saving and new energy automotive industry planning (2011-2020)" (referred to as "planning"). As an important component of the “12th Five-Year Plan†of the automobile industry, “Planning†has defined the development goals and implementation path of China's new energy vehicles from 2011 to 2020.
However, such a "plan" that can be regarded as the "fundamental" of the development of China's new energy vehicles has been repeatedly postponed.
The long-awaited call for "planning" has indeed been pushed back again." On January 5, an expert from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") confirmed the news to reporters. China Automobile Association is the main drafting agency of "Planning".
This is not the first time to postpone the "fundamental" of the new energy auto industry.
In August 2010, the drafting of "Planning" led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology completed the consultation. According to the plan, after the "Plan" was further improved, it should have been formally introduced before the end of 2010.
"The "Plan" determines the electric vehicle as an important strategic direction for the transformation of the automobile industry. China will eventually realize the industrialization of plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles, and will accelerate the development of fuel cell vehicle technology." As the "plan" drafted The participant, Chen Quanshi said.
According to the previously drafted “Planning†consultation draft, by 2020, the cumulative production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 5 million vehicles, of which, the medium and heavy hybrid passenger vehicles will account for more than 50% of the annual sales of passenger vehicles. However, in the aspect of controlling the cost of electric vehicles, the goal of the “Planning†is: By 2015 (the medium-term goal in the “Planningâ€), the power battery system will have an energy density of more than 120 Wh/kg, and the cost will be reduced to 2 Yuan/Watt. By 2020, the power battery system will have an energy density of more than 200 Wh/kg and the cost will be reduced to 1.5 yuan/Wh.
In order to achieve the above major goals, the "planning" put forward corresponding safeguard measures from various aspects such as fiscal taxation and setting up technology platforms. Taking R&D investment as an example, although the specific amount of central government investment is not listed in the draft of the “Planningâ€, there is data showing that in the next decade, the government will use R&D and promotion of core technologies for energy-saving and new energy vehicles. Put up to 100 billion yuan. If coupled with the matching funds of local governments, this investment will exceed 200 billion yuan.
"(Development of new energy vehicles) should establish sufficient funds for national energy-saving and new energy vehicles. The total amount of funds will reach the order of one hundred billion yuan." At a forum in 2010, the statement made by the secretary general of the China Aviation Industry Association Secretary General Ye Shengji confirmed the eventual It is not written into the "planning" of the central government's investment in the development of new energy vehicles. "If by 2015, the end of the twelfth five-year period, our country invested 2 trillion yuan in vehicles, then the investment in energy-saving new energy vehicles is at least 10 yuan. %the above."
Due to specific objectives, policy guarantees, and huge investment coupled with repeated arguments, the "planning" seems to depict a bright future for China's new energy automotive industry. However, why did the introduction process fail?
On November 22, 2010, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized experts to discuss six standards related to electric vehicles, involving classification of hybrid vehicles, super-capacitors, charging interfaces for electric vehicles, and power battery product specifications. The first three criteria have been basically established.
“The size of power battery products is difficult to unify, and we will focus on discussions when we open our annual meeting on January 10.†Chen Quanshi revealed to reporters.
In fact, the standard cannot be unified. It is one of the reasons why the "plan" cannot be introduced. Due to the involvement of multiple parties, the charging interface standards, such as those determined at the above meeting, have also undergone a lengthy discussion process. Behind it, what is looming is the struggle for interests.
The inclusion of hybrid vehicles in the "planning" and giving it a very important position (according to the "Planning", by 2020, moderate and severe hybrid vehicles to reach more than 50% of annual sales of passenger cars), observe this The appearance of change may explain some problems.
Still need to be perfected. In fact, the dispute over interests is just one of the reasons why the "planning" has been postponed. In the eyes of people in the industry, many provisions still need to be improved, which also affects the progress of the "Planning" to some extent.
In the “Planning†consultation draft, the controversial small-scale low-speed electric vehicle network was opened, and it was stipulated “to select 2 to 3 typical cities to organize the demonstration operation of small-scale low-speed pure electric vehiclesâ€. At the same time, the draft of the consultation also made it clear that it is necessary to develop the core technology of electric vehicle driving batteries, and strive to rank among the international leaders.
As we all know, the electric drive system of a small low-speed electric vehicle is far from a high-speed electric vehicle. From a technical point of view alone, such a provision may be confusing for some power battery R&D enterprises.
"The demonstration of low-speed electric vehicles in the "planning" is just my personal suggestion, not the will of the government. "An industry expert who participated in the drafting of the "plan" stated that although the industry is currently controversial about low-speed electric vehicles, Since there is no definite conclusion, we may give some experimental space first. "At present, the main focus is on miniaturization and lightweighting, but it is not slow-speeding. This is different," the expert explained.
In the "plan" consultation draft, there is no clear definition of low-speed electric vehicles.
“An important reason for the postponement of the “planning†is that everyone can't see the exact route of new energy and related standards and measures. The development plan of new energy is a dynamic program, and it is with the technological progress of domestic new energy itself. And a policy of continuous adjustment of market dynamics.†Chen Guangzu, a member of the China Automobile Industry Advisory Committee, emphasized to reporters: “Not one department can be finalized at once.â€
The "low-speed electric vehicle" dispute is only part of the "planning" controversy, there are many similar disputes. The “planning†comment draft sets targets for the industrial layout of new energy vehicles in the next decade: By 2020, it will cultivate an automobile enterprise group with 1 to 2 new energy vehicles with a production and sales scale of more than 1 million, and 3 to 5 new ones. The automotive enterprise group that produces and sells more than 500,000 energy vehicles.
"This is again the concept of mentioning the national team. Should we develop private cars for the development of new energy vehicles?" Some senior executives of private auto companies have no complaints.
""Planning" has been reported to the State Council, the final announcement of the content will not be too much changes." China Automobile Association experts confirmed that the "Planning" will be issued in March this year.
From this point of view, China's new energy automotive industry will begin with the difficult start of the 12th Five-Year Plan.
The "predecessor" of the "planning" is entitled "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020)" and was originally scheduled to be promulgated in March 2010. It does not include hybrid technology.
However, this policy idea that can be "understood" has caused the two camps of China's new energy vehicle market to compete. “Electric vehicle school†believes that after 10 years of research and development of electric vehicles under the National 863 Plan, the domestic automobile industry has been on the same level as the international automobile industry in the field of electric vehicles. “In the marathon long-distance race for the new energy market, our huge market and cost advantage will become the tactical weapon to win.†At the Shenzhen World Electric Vehicle Conference in November 2010, the national 863 plan for energy-saving and new energy vehicles was significant. Wang Binggang, head of the project supervision consulting group, said. The "hybrid school" believes that based on cost and technology maturity, hybrid power is the best solution in the process of realizing the ultimate goal of a conventional power car to a fuel cell vehicle.
These two "genre" schools also have their representatives at the corporate level. Nissan is a firm practitioner of pure electric vehicles. In March 2010, its first pure electric vehicle, the Leaf, was launched in Japan and became the world's first pure electric vehicle to be put into commercial operation. The representative of hybrid power is the Japanese “Two Fields†(Toyota and Honda). “Honda and Honda have always regarded the hybrid technology route as the most suitable technology route for the new energy vehicle industry for a long period of time now and in the future. Li Shengmao, a senior researcher at China Investment Advisors said.
However, these controversies were "declined" as the hybrid was included in the "plan." Under the scramble of the main drafting organization of “Planning†and the auto company “Niang Family†of the domestic automobile company, hybrid power was counted as an energy-saving technology, and the original “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020)†also ended. Transformed into the current "planning."
However, even so, there is still a different voice in the government's perspective on the prospects for new energy vehicles.
Wan Gang, the minister of science and technology, once suggested that if the development is extraordinary, the market share of new energy vehicles in China will reach 10% in 2012. Compared with the optimism of the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which is in charge of the announcement of the approval of new vehicles, appears to be “conservativeâ€. In January 2010, Miao Tao once stated that the so-called sales of new energy vehicles before the end of 2020 will only account for a very small proportion of the total car sales. "I estimate that this ratio is about 10% to 15%, that is, Say, 85% to 90% of cars are still traditional petroleum-based cars."
In addition, the wrestling of the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the issue of the dominance of new energy vehicles has also made it difficult to publish the policies concerning the definition of new energy vehicles and the subsidy program for consumers purchasing new energy vehicles. "The key is to look at the energy saving rate, not to say that an electric vehicle must give subsidies." Before the "Energy-saving Products Benefiting People Project" energy-saving automobile financial subsidy program was issued, an official of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revealed to reporters that the information appeared to be different.
Chen said that the "planning" full name is "energy-saving and new energy automotive industry planning (2011-2020)" (referred to as "planning"). As an important component of the “12th Five-Year Plan†of the automobile industry, “Planning†has defined the development goals and implementation path of China's new energy vehicles from 2011 to 2020.
However, such a "plan" that can be regarded as the "fundamental" of the development of China's new energy vehicles has been repeatedly postponed.
The long-awaited call for "planning" has indeed been pushed back again." On January 5, an expert from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") confirmed the news to reporters. China Automobile Association is the main drafting agency of "Planning".
This is not the first time to postpone the "fundamental" of the new energy auto industry.
In August 2010, the drafting of "Planning" led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology completed the consultation. According to the plan, after the "Plan" was further improved, it should have been formally introduced before the end of 2010.
"The "Plan" determines the electric vehicle as an important strategic direction for the transformation of the automobile industry. China will eventually realize the industrialization of plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles, and will accelerate the development of fuel cell vehicle technology." As the "plan" drafted The participant, Chen Quanshi said.
According to the previously drafted “Planning†consultation draft, by 2020, the cumulative production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 5 million vehicles, of which, the medium and heavy hybrid passenger vehicles will account for more than 50% of the annual sales of passenger vehicles. However, in the aspect of controlling the cost of electric vehicles, the goal of the “Planning†is: By 2015 (the medium-term goal in the “Planningâ€), the power battery system will have an energy density of more than 120 Wh/kg, and the cost will be reduced to 2 Yuan/Watt. By 2020, the power battery system will have an energy density of more than 200 Wh/kg and the cost will be reduced to 1.5 yuan/Wh.
In order to achieve the above major goals, the "planning" put forward corresponding safeguard measures from various aspects such as fiscal taxation and setting up technology platforms. Taking R&D investment as an example, although the specific amount of central government investment is not listed in the draft of the “Planningâ€, there is data showing that in the next decade, the government will use R&D and promotion of core technologies for energy-saving and new energy vehicles. Put up to 100 billion yuan. If coupled with the matching funds of local governments, this investment will exceed 200 billion yuan.
"(Development of new energy vehicles) should establish sufficient funds for national energy-saving and new energy vehicles. The total amount of funds will reach the order of one hundred billion yuan." At a forum in 2010, the statement made by the secretary general of the China Aviation Industry Association Secretary General Ye Shengji confirmed the eventual It is not written into the "planning" of the central government's investment in the development of new energy vehicles. "If by 2015, the end of the twelfth five-year period, our country invested 2 trillion yuan in vehicles, then the investment in energy-saving new energy vehicles is at least 10 yuan. %the above."
Due to specific objectives, policy guarantees, and huge investment coupled with repeated arguments, the "planning" seems to depict a bright future for China's new energy automotive industry. However, why did the introduction process fail?
On November 22, 2010, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized experts to discuss six standards related to electric vehicles, involving classification of hybrid vehicles, super-capacitors, charging interfaces for electric vehicles, and power battery product specifications. The first three criteria have been basically established.
“The size of power battery products is difficult to unify, and we will focus on discussions when we open our annual meeting on January 10.†Chen Quanshi revealed to reporters.
In fact, the standard cannot be unified. It is one of the reasons why the "plan" cannot be introduced. Due to the involvement of multiple parties, the charging interface standards, such as those determined at the above meeting, have also undergone a lengthy discussion process. Behind it, what is looming is the struggle for interests.
The inclusion of hybrid vehicles in the "planning" and giving it a very important position (according to the "Planning", by 2020, moderate and severe hybrid vehicles to reach more than 50% of annual sales of passenger cars), observe this The appearance of change may explain some problems.
Still need to be perfected. In fact, the dispute over interests is just one of the reasons why the "planning" has been postponed. In the eyes of people in the industry, many provisions still need to be improved, which also affects the progress of the "Planning" to some extent.
In the “Planning†consultation draft, the controversial small-scale low-speed electric vehicle network was opened, and it was stipulated “to select 2 to 3 typical cities to organize the demonstration operation of small-scale low-speed pure electric vehiclesâ€. At the same time, the draft of the consultation also made it clear that it is necessary to develop the core technology of electric vehicle driving batteries, and strive to rank among the international leaders.
As we all know, the electric drive system of a small low-speed electric vehicle is far from a high-speed electric vehicle. From a technical point of view alone, such a provision may be confusing for some power battery R&D enterprises.
"The demonstration of low-speed electric vehicles in the "planning" is just my personal suggestion, not the will of the government. "An industry expert who participated in the drafting of the "plan" stated that although the industry is currently controversial about low-speed electric vehicles, Since there is no definite conclusion, we may give some experimental space first. "At present, the main focus is on miniaturization and lightweighting, but it is not slow-speeding. This is different," the expert explained.
In the "plan" consultation draft, there is no clear definition of low-speed electric vehicles.
“An important reason for the postponement of the “planning†is that everyone can't see the exact route of new energy and related standards and measures. The development plan of new energy is a dynamic program, and it is with the technological progress of domestic new energy itself. And a policy of continuous adjustment of market dynamics.†Chen Guangzu, a member of the China Automobile Industry Advisory Committee, emphasized to reporters: “Not one department can be finalized at once.â€
The "low-speed electric vehicle" dispute is only part of the "planning" controversy, there are many similar disputes. The “planning†comment draft sets targets for the industrial layout of new energy vehicles in the next decade: By 2020, it will cultivate an automobile enterprise group with 1 to 2 new energy vehicles with a production and sales scale of more than 1 million, and 3 to 5 new ones. The automotive enterprise group that produces and sells more than 500,000 energy vehicles.
"This is again the concept of mentioning the national team. Should we develop private cars for the development of new energy vehicles?" Some senior executives of private auto companies have no complaints.
""Planning" has been reported to the State Council, the final announcement of the content will not be too much changes." China Automobile Association experts confirmed that the "Planning" will be issued in March this year.
From this point of view, China's new energy automotive industry will begin with the difficult start of the 12th Five-Year Plan.
The "predecessor" of the "planning" is entitled "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020)" and was originally scheduled to be promulgated in March 2010. It does not include hybrid technology.
However, this policy idea that can be "understood" has caused the two camps of China's new energy vehicle market to compete. “Electric vehicle school†believes that after 10 years of research and development of electric vehicles under the National 863 Plan, the domestic automobile industry has been on the same level as the international automobile industry in the field of electric vehicles. “In the marathon long-distance race for the new energy market, our huge market and cost advantage will become the tactical weapon to win.†At the Shenzhen World Electric Vehicle Conference in November 2010, the national 863 plan for energy-saving and new energy vehicles was significant. Wang Binggang, head of the project supervision consulting group, said. The "hybrid school" believes that based on cost and technology maturity, hybrid power is the best solution in the process of realizing the ultimate goal of a conventional power car to a fuel cell vehicle.
These two "genre" schools also have their representatives at the corporate level. Nissan is a firm practitioner of pure electric vehicles. In March 2010, its first pure electric vehicle, the Leaf, was launched in Japan and became the world's first pure electric vehicle to be put into commercial operation. The representative of hybrid power is the Japanese “Two Fields†(Toyota and Honda). “Honda and Honda have always regarded the hybrid technology route as the most suitable technology route for the new energy vehicle industry for a long period of time now and in the future. Li Shengmao, a senior researcher at China Investment Advisors said.
However, these controversies were "declined" as the hybrid was included in the "plan." Under the scramble of the main drafting organization of “Planning†and the auto company “Niang Family†of the domestic automobile company, hybrid power was counted as an energy-saving technology, and the original “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020)†also ended. Transformed into the current "planning."
However, even so, there is still a different voice in the government's perspective on the prospects for new energy vehicles.
Wan Gang, the minister of science and technology, once suggested that if the development is extraordinary, the market share of new energy vehicles in China will reach 10% in 2012. Compared with the optimism of the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which is in charge of the announcement of the approval of new vehicles, appears to be “conservativeâ€. In January 2010, Miao Tao once stated that the so-called sales of new energy vehicles before the end of 2020 will only account for a very small proportion of the total car sales. "I estimate that this ratio is about 10% to 15%, that is, Say, 85% to 90% of cars are still traditional petroleum-based cars."
In addition, the wrestling of the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the issue of the dominance of new energy vehicles has also made it difficult to publish the policies concerning the definition of new energy vehicles and the subsidy program for consumers purchasing new energy vehicles. "The key is to look at the energy saving rate, not to say that an electric vehicle must give subsidies." Before the "Energy-saving Products Benefiting People Project" energy-saving automobile financial subsidy program was issued, an official of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revealed to reporters that the information appeared to be different.