Since October, the coal tar market has been operating at a high level for nearly three months and hit a new high for the year in November. The mainstream transaction price in the domestic market was 3,400 (ton price, the same below), and the high-end price was 3,600 yuan, which represented an increase of more than 28% compared with the beginning of the year. In December, facing the short-term short-term demand contraction at the end of the year and the continued weakening of the next parade, the market's high level began to recover, and the bottom-up search for support began. However, due to the favorable growth driven by the mid-to-long term demand growth and high-cost operation of resource products, the market outlook will remain strong and the market outlook is expected to be good in 2011.
——High prices have been weakened downstream In early December, due to the continuous high coal tar market, the cost of downstream deep-processing companies remained high, while downstream deep-processed products such as industrial naphthalene, eucalyptus oil, and washing oil were also marketed by water reducers and carbon blacks. The off-season reduced demand and product prices continued to decline. Among them, industrial naphthalene hit a record high of 10,000 yuan in November, and then continued to decline. By the end of December, the domestic mainstream transaction price was around 8,000 yuan, and the low end even fell below 8,000 yuan, a drop of 20%. Other products, such as oyster sauce, washing oil, and asphalt, have also been contracted to form a counter pressure on the coal tar market, which has reduced the support for market highs. From the end of the year to the end of the year, with the continuous adjustment of the industrial chain products, the bearish atmosphere in the industry has increased, together with the return of capital to the company, most companies have implemented a policy of drastically reducing inventory or zero inventories and reducing the purchase of coal tar in the short term. The formation of a boycott factor in the market. In addition, after the coal tar market has been operating at a high level for nearly three consecutive months, it has highlighted the requirements for technical adjustments, and the high positions have been seeking to meet the normal operating rules of the market.
- Market consolidation will remain strong It is understood that the current domestic coal tar manufacturers are affected by factors such as limited production at the end of the year and inventory reduction. It is expected that production will decline by more than 5% in the previous month. According to the feedback from coal tar manufacturers, the current downstream customers of the company are basically planned customers, and production and sales are relatively stable. Unplanned customers rarely ship. In order to ensure a smooth transition at the end of the year, the company reduced the operating rate at a proper time, and adjusted the output to form a strong support for the market. The short-term weakness of the market is only the normal adjustment of the market operation, and will not undermine the overall trend after the strong, short-term demand will soon be reduced. According to incomplete statistics, China's 90 coal tar deep-processing enterprises stopped 19% in November. The average operating rate of other enterprises is about 70%, and the domestic comprehensive utilization rate is less than 60%. Entering December, some companies conducted normal overhauls, combined with factors such as control of production after the completion of this year's production plan at the end of the year, and a further reduction in the comprehensive utilization rate was a major factor in the formation of a high level of correction in this round of coal tar market. Entering January 2011, driven by the positive factors such as the reopening of enterprises after maintenance, the improvement of limited production and power supply status, and the scheduling of new production plans, the comprehensive utilization rate of deep-processing companies will continue to increase, resulting in an increase in demand. Therefore, this round of cross-year consolidation will maintain a strong trend. If bottoming out is successful, it is expected to form the mid- and long-term bottom of 2011.
——Long-term demand growth in Baoshi strengthened With the investment in the 300 kt/y deep coal tar deep processing project invested by Jiangxi Black Cat Holding Company Wuhai Black Cat Carbon Black Co., Ltd. in December of this year, and Shandong Jiefu Yizheng Chemical Co., Ltd. The expansion of an annual output of 500,000 tons of deep-processing equipment has been successfully put into operation. Combined with projects under construction in other parts of the country, 2011 will be a year in which the demand for coal tar has increased significantly. The completion and commissioning of downstream deep-processing companies and the gradual increase in the number of old enterprises will inevitably gradually pull the market's strength.
In addition, judging from the current trend of the chemical industry and some economic data, it is expected that the price platform for resource products will exceed the 2010 average level in 2011 and maintain a high-cost operating status. Coal tar, which is a resource product for the chemical industry, is also expected to rise out of an overall uplift. The adjustment will not show much room for decline. If it can be put in place, it is expected that the first quarter of 2011 is expected to exceed the previous high point.
——High prices have been weakened downstream In early December, due to the continuous high coal tar market, the cost of downstream deep-processing companies remained high, while downstream deep-processed products such as industrial naphthalene, eucalyptus oil, and washing oil were also marketed by water reducers and carbon blacks. The off-season reduced demand and product prices continued to decline. Among them, industrial naphthalene hit a record high of 10,000 yuan in November, and then continued to decline. By the end of December, the domestic mainstream transaction price was around 8,000 yuan, and the low end even fell below 8,000 yuan, a drop of 20%. Other products, such as oyster sauce, washing oil, and asphalt, have also been contracted to form a counter pressure on the coal tar market, which has reduced the support for market highs. From the end of the year to the end of the year, with the continuous adjustment of the industrial chain products, the bearish atmosphere in the industry has increased, together with the return of capital to the company, most companies have implemented a policy of drastically reducing inventory or zero inventories and reducing the purchase of coal tar in the short term. The formation of a boycott factor in the market. In addition, after the coal tar market has been operating at a high level for nearly three consecutive months, it has highlighted the requirements for technical adjustments, and the high positions have been seeking to meet the normal operating rules of the market.
- Market consolidation will remain strong It is understood that the current domestic coal tar manufacturers are affected by factors such as limited production at the end of the year and inventory reduction. It is expected that production will decline by more than 5% in the previous month. According to the feedback from coal tar manufacturers, the current downstream customers of the company are basically planned customers, and production and sales are relatively stable. Unplanned customers rarely ship. In order to ensure a smooth transition at the end of the year, the company reduced the operating rate at a proper time, and adjusted the output to form a strong support for the market. The short-term weakness of the market is only the normal adjustment of the market operation, and will not undermine the overall trend after the strong, short-term demand will soon be reduced. According to incomplete statistics, China's 90 coal tar deep-processing enterprises stopped 19% in November. The average operating rate of other enterprises is about 70%, and the domestic comprehensive utilization rate is less than 60%. Entering December, some companies conducted normal overhauls, combined with factors such as control of production after the completion of this year's production plan at the end of the year, and a further reduction in the comprehensive utilization rate was a major factor in the formation of a high level of correction in this round of coal tar market. Entering January 2011, driven by the positive factors such as the reopening of enterprises after maintenance, the improvement of limited production and power supply status, and the scheduling of new production plans, the comprehensive utilization rate of deep-processing companies will continue to increase, resulting in an increase in demand. Therefore, this round of cross-year consolidation will maintain a strong trend. If bottoming out is successful, it is expected to form the mid- and long-term bottom of 2011.
——Long-term demand growth in Baoshi strengthened With the investment in the 300 kt/y deep coal tar deep processing project invested by Jiangxi Black Cat Holding Company Wuhai Black Cat Carbon Black Co., Ltd. in December of this year, and Shandong Jiefu Yizheng Chemical Co., Ltd. The expansion of an annual output of 500,000 tons of deep-processing equipment has been successfully put into operation. Combined with projects under construction in other parts of the country, 2011 will be a year in which the demand for coal tar has increased significantly. The completion and commissioning of downstream deep-processing companies and the gradual increase in the number of old enterprises will inevitably gradually pull the market's strength.
In addition, judging from the current trend of the chemical industry and some economic data, it is expected that the price platform for resource products will exceed the 2010 average level in 2011 and maintain a high-cost operating status. Coal tar, which is a resource product for the chemical industry, is also expected to rise out of an overall uplift. The adjustment will not show much room for decline. If it can be put in place, it is expected that the first quarter of 2011 is expected to exceed the previous high point.