Frequent earthquakes around the world have also triggered an upsurge in the impact of earthquakes on the hardware and electronic machinery industry. The Philippines is located on the volcanic belt of the Pacific Rim. Earthquakes frequently occur due to the collision of the tectonic plates, and volcanic activity is also quite active. On August 16, 1976, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake struck Morro Bay in the southern Philippines and caused a tsunami, resulting in at least 5,000 deaths.
At 1:15 a.m. local time on the 26th, a 5.9-magnitude earthquake struck Zambales Province in northern Philippines. The earthquake lasted 10 to 30 seconds, and some of the tall buildings in the area were shaking. After the earthquake, there were three smaller magnitude earthquakes in this area, and the highest magnitude was Richter scale. The epicenter of the quake was located 13 kilometers northwest of Ibara, capital of the northern part of the northern Philippines, and was surrounded by cities including Metro Manila.
Chile is the world’s largest producer of copper, and its copper reserves and exports have ranked first in the world, with proven reserves of more than 200 million tons, accounting for 34% of the world’s total reserves, and mining and exporting of copper in the world. The industry plays an important role. The world's largest copper mine is located in northern Chile. However, the closer it is to the world, the more susceptible it is to the world. Beijing on February 27, 2010, a 8.8-magnitude earthquake struck Chile, causing major loss of personnel and property.
Luo Baihui, secretary-general of the International Mould, Hardware and Plastics Industry Suppliers Association, said that due to the influence of the international market, domestic copper prices have also started to rise all the way, giving hardware companies a considerable cost pressure. The Chilean earthquake has had a huge impact on international copper prices. In February, the futures price of copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange has been continuously rising, and international copper prices have increased by 7.6%. The most obvious is that this year's Pearl River Delta region in China suffered a serious “labour shortage†and labor costs have risen sharply. However, the Southeast Asian region suffered a major drought in a century, and a large number of illegal immigrants from northern Vietnam flooded into the Pearl River Delta region to find employment opportunities and filled the labor gap. This has, to some extent, reduced labor costs. Global earthquakes frequently affect the cost of raw materials. Various meteorological disasters also affect the labor market, causing a slight change in the labor costs of hardware companies.
At 3:00 pm on March 11th, 2011, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake hit Japan, which has a huge impact on the global hardware industry chain. The impact of the earthquake in Japan on the international steel market was first reflected in the raw materials. The suspension of production of the three major steel plants will directly affect the demand for international coking coal and iron ore. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will be reduced by 3.5 million per month in the next six months. Ton, coking coal decreased by 1.7 million tons. At present, the spot iron ore market is in a downtrend channel, and the earthquake will accelerate the decline, and the decline will also exceed the previous market forecast. For the spot coking coal market, the impact of flooding in Australia will also be offset by the Japanese earthquake, and prices will return to a reasonable level.
Judging from the historical data of the past five years, Japan's annual crude steel production is basically between 85-125 million tons, accounting for 7%-10% of the world's crude steel. In 2010, crude steel production in Japan was close to 110 million tons and exports were about 43.40 million tons. Therefore, as far as the global pattern is concerned, the impact of the earthquake in Japan on global steel is also very limited.
In 2010, Japan imported 4.26 million tons of steel (excluding semi-finished products), which accounted for about 6.6% of its apparent consumption. The main sources of imports were Korea, China, and Taiwan. The main varieties imported are hot coils, cold coils and galvanized sheets. Compared with exports, Japan's imports are very low, and its impact on the external market is negligible.
In 2010, Japan exported 43.4 million tons of steel, which accounted for approximately 45% of its output. It is the world’s largest steel exporter and its main export destinations are South Korea, China and other parts of Asia. The export varieties are mainly hot coil, galvanized sheet, cold coil, medium plate, welded pipe, electrical steel and stainless steel. These steels are mainly used in industries such as automobiles, home appliances and shipbuilding.
The production capacity affected by the earthquake is mainly thin plates and medium-thick plates. It is expected that the export volume of Japanese thin plates and medium plate will be significantly reduced in the next six months. The supply and demand balance of these two varieties in Asia will be broken, and the market price is expected to rise accordingly. It is estimated that after two or three months, Japan's post-disaster reconstruction will begin, which is expected to boost the export of construction steel in Asian countries. Automobile factories, shipyards and domestic power plants in Asia will be affected by the rise in steel prices. Large-scale steel mills in China and South Korea may benefit from falling raw materials and rising steel prices.
For the Chinese steel industry, China imported 16.45 million tons of steel products in 2010, including 7.47 million tons of steel imported from Japan, accounting for about 45% of the total imports, and the total amount of steel exports was 42.56 million tons, of which 810,000 tons were exported to Japan. , accounting for about 2%. Therefore, the direct view may have a certain impact on China's steel imports and have little effect on exports. As far as imported varieties are concerned, the Japanese steel industry is mainly focused on the production of high-end steel products such as silicon steel sheets and high-grade car plates. In 2010, China imported 7.47 million tons of steel from Japan. The earthquake will directly affect the export of Japan's high-end steel products. This will benefit China's high-end panel manufacturers, such as silicon steel sheet, high-grade car plates, special steel, etc. In terms of exports, Japan will export less steel to the world, which is conducive to the export of steel products in China. Since Japanese steel companies do not basically produce construction steel, post-disaster reconstruction will also stimulate the export of steel for construction in Japan. As the earthquake in Japan caused some steel production enterprises in the northeast region to temporarily suspend production, although the impact on the total amount of iron ore is not particularly large, most of the global iron ore trade is currently in a wait-and-see phase. Therefore, Japan’s demand for iron ore is short-term. The drop may lead to a short-term decline in iron ore prices, which is conducive to the temporary relief of certain cost pressures for Chinese steel companies. But farther away, post-disaster reconstruction will inevitably bring about an increase in the demand for steel. After a short-term impact on the stimulating effect of iron ore, it will eventually stimulate even greater demand. In general, the earthquake in Japan will benefit the Chinese steel industry in the short term. In particular, companies such as Baosteel and Wuhan Iron & Steel will directly benefit.
Japan is the third largest copper smelting producer in the world. At present, two major copper refineries in Japan have ceased operations due to power outages. This became a reason for the rebound in copper prices on Friday. However, we are not worried that the stoppage of copper smelters will have a fundamental impact on copper production. Currently, the utilization rate of global copper smelting capacity is only about 70%. The increase in the utilization rate of copper smelters in other regions can buffer this effect. However, the impact of the earthquake in Japan has been extended to Chile. The Chilean government has issued evacuation notices to all flood-stricken coastal areas in the country to avoid possible tsunami caused by the earthquake in Japan. This will cause the export of Chilean copper to be affected. . It is reported that Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has sent ships to the sea to prevent the impact of the tsunami. Discontinuation of coastal ports such as Chile may pose short-term supply tensions, but this is essentially different from the change in supply and demand of copper triggered by the Chilean earthquake.
The short-term impact of other bulk metals, such as lead, zinc and aluminum, mainly comes from the suspension of production by Japanese automakers, but the impact is minimal. Luo Baihui believes that Japan's auto industry has a global distribution of production capacity and better localization. Some production capacity and products can be allocated according to market conditions. In addition, most of the local factory production facilities have not been directly damaged, and the post-earthquake infrastructure has been repaired. Production will gradually recover. We can also see from the aluminum consumption data in Japan that the global share of aluminum consumption in Japan is only about 5%, so the earthquake will not have a significant impact on global aluminum consumption. From the rapid response of the Japanese authorities since the disaster to the present day and the high quality that the Japanese people have demonstrated, it can be seen that Japan’s post-disaster recovery process will also be extremely rapid, and it will bring about a certain pull for bulk metal consumption.
Most of China’s hardware companies are export processing or OEM-type enterprises. They use domestic labor resources to process and produce related hardware products for foreign companies, and then export to international markets. Luo Baihui said that with the deepening of globalization, the hardware industry is now It is a truly "global industry." Metal products are mainly made of steel, iron, copper, aluminum and other metals. At present, China's iron ore and nonferrous metal raw materials are heavily dependent on imports. China's hardware industry presents a clear "import, production (processing), export" industry form, and has become an important part of the international hardware industry chain, and has a close connection with the world's raw materials and product sales markets.
At 1:15 a.m. local time on the 26th, a 5.9-magnitude earthquake struck Zambales Province in northern Philippines. The earthquake lasted 10 to 30 seconds, and some of the tall buildings in the area were shaking. After the earthquake, there were three smaller magnitude earthquakes in this area, and the highest magnitude was Richter scale. The epicenter of the quake was located 13 kilometers northwest of Ibara, capital of the northern part of the northern Philippines, and was surrounded by cities including Metro Manila.
Chile is the world’s largest producer of copper, and its copper reserves and exports have ranked first in the world, with proven reserves of more than 200 million tons, accounting for 34% of the world’s total reserves, and mining and exporting of copper in the world. The industry plays an important role. The world's largest copper mine is located in northern Chile. However, the closer it is to the world, the more susceptible it is to the world. Beijing on February 27, 2010, a 8.8-magnitude earthquake struck Chile, causing major loss of personnel and property.
Luo Baihui, secretary-general of the International Mould, Hardware and Plastics Industry Suppliers Association, said that due to the influence of the international market, domestic copper prices have also started to rise all the way, giving hardware companies a considerable cost pressure. The Chilean earthquake has had a huge impact on international copper prices. In February, the futures price of copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange has been continuously rising, and international copper prices have increased by 7.6%. The most obvious is that this year's Pearl River Delta region in China suffered a serious “labour shortage†and labor costs have risen sharply. However, the Southeast Asian region suffered a major drought in a century, and a large number of illegal immigrants from northern Vietnam flooded into the Pearl River Delta region to find employment opportunities and filled the labor gap. This has, to some extent, reduced labor costs. Global earthquakes frequently affect the cost of raw materials. Various meteorological disasters also affect the labor market, causing a slight change in the labor costs of hardware companies.
At 3:00 pm on March 11th, 2011, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake hit Japan, which has a huge impact on the global hardware industry chain. The impact of the earthquake in Japan on the international steel market was first reflected in the raw materials. The suspension of production of the three major steel plants will directly affect the demand for international coking coal and iron ore. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will be reduced by 3.5 million per month in the next six months. Ton, coking coal decreased by 1.7 million tons. At present, the spot iron ore market is in a downtrend channel, and the earthquake will accelerate the decline, and the decline will also exceed the previous market forecast. For the spot coking coal market, the impact of flooding in Australia will also be offset by the Japanese earthquake, and prices will return to a reasonable level.
Judging from the historical data of the past five years, Japan's annual crude steel production is basically between 85-125 million tons, accounting for 7%-10% of the world's crude steel. In 2010, crude steel production in Japan was close to 110 million tons and exports were about 43.40 million tons. Therefore, as far as the global pattern is concerned, the impact of the earthquake in Japan on global steel is also very limited.
In 2010, Japan imported 4.26 million tons of steel (excluding semi-finished products), which accounted for about 6.6% of its apparent consumption. The main sources of imports were Korea, China, and Taiwan. The main varieties imported are hot coils, cold coils and galvanized sheets. Compared with exports, Japan's imports are very low, and its impact on the external market is negligible.
In 2010, Japan exported 43.4 million tons of steel, which accounted for approximately 45% of its output. It is the world’s largest steel exporter and its main export destinations are South Korea, China and other parts of Asia. The export varieties are mainly hot coil, galvanized sheet, cold coil, medium plate, welded pipe, electrical steel and stainless steel. These steels are mainly used in industries such as automobiles, home appliances and shipbuilding.
The production capacity affected by the earthquake is mainly thin plates and medium-thick plates. It is expected that the export volume of Japanese thin plates and medium plate will be significantly reduced in the next six months. The supply and demand balance of these two varieties in Asia will be broken, and the market price is expected to rise accordingly. It is estimated that after two or three months, Japan's post-disaster reconstruction will begin, which is expected to boost the export of construction steel in Asian countries. Automobile factories, shipyards and domestic power plants in Asia will be affected by the rise in steel prices. Large-scale steel mills in China and South Korea may benefit from falling raw materials and rising steel prices.
For the Chinese steel industry, China imported 16.45 million tons of steel products in 2010, including 7.47 million tons of steel imported from Japan, accounting for about 45% of the total imports, and the total amount of steel exports was 42.56 million tons, of which 810,000 tons were exported to Japan. , accounting for about 2%. Therefore, the direct view may have a certain impact on China's steel imports and have little effect on exports. As far as imported varieties are concerned, the Japanese steel industry is mainly focused on the production of high-end steel products such as silicon steel sheets and high-grade car plates. In 2010, China imported 7.47 million tons of steel from Japan. The earthquake will directly affect the export of Japan's high-end steel products. This will benefit China's high-end panel manufacturers, such as silicon steel sheet, high-grade car plates, special steel, etc. In terms of exports, Japan will export less steel to the world, which is conducive to the export of steel products in China. Since Japanese steel companies do not basically produce construction steel, post-disaster reconstruction will also stimulate the export of steel for construction in Japan. As the earthquake in Japan caused some steel production enterprises in the northeast region to temporarily suspend production, although the impact on the total amount of iron ore is not particularly large, most of the global iron ore trade is currently in a wait-and-see phase. Therefore, Japan’s demand for iron ore is short-term. The drop may lead to a short-term decline in iron ore prices, which is conducive to the temporary relief of certain cost pressures for Chinese steel companies. But farther away, post-disaster reconstruction will inevitably bring about an increase in the demand for steel. After a short-term impact on the stimulating effect of iron ore, it will eventually stimulate even greater demand. In general, the earthquake in Japan will benefit the Chinese steel industry in the short term. In particular, companies such as Baosteel and Wuhan Iron & Steel will directly benefit.
Japan is the third largest copper smelting producer in the world. At present, two major copper refineries in Japan have ceased operations due to power outages. This became a reason for the rebound in copper prices on Friday. However, we are not worried that the stoppage of copper smelters will have a fundamental impact on copper production. Currently, the utilization rate of global copper smelting capacity is only about 70%. The increase in the utilization rate of copper smelters in other regions can buffer this effect. However, the impact of the earthquake in Japan has been extended to Chile. The Chilean government has issued evacuation notices to all flood-stricken coastal areas in the country to avoid possible tsunami caused by the earthquake in Japan. This will cause the export of Chilean copper to be affected. . It is reported that Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has sent ships to the sea to prevent the impact of the tsunami. Discontinuation of coastal ports such as Chile may pose short-term supply tensions, but this is essentially different from the change in supply and demand of copper triggered by the Chilean earthquake.
The short-term impact of other bulk metals, such as lead, zinc and aluminum, mainly comes from the suspension of production by Japanese automakers, but the impact is minimal. Luo Baihui believes that Japan's auto industry has a global distribution of production capacity and better localization. Some production capacity and products can be allocated according to market conditions. In addition, most of the local factory production facilities have not been directly damaged, and the post-earthquake infrastructure has been repaired. Production will gradually recover. We can also see from the aluminum consumption data in Japan that the global share of aluminum consumption in Japan is only about 5%, so the earthquake will not have a significant impact on global aluminum consumption. From the rapid response of the Japanese authorities since the disaster to the present day and the high quality that the Japanese people have demonstrated, it can be seen that Japan’s post-disaster recovery process will also be extremely rapid, and it will bring about a certain pull for bulk metal consumption.
Most of China’s hardware companies are export processing or OEM-type enterprises. They use domestic labor resources to process and produce related hardware products for foreign companies, and then export to international markets. Luo Baihui said that with the deepening of globalization, the hardware industry is now It is a truly "global industry." Metal products are mainly made of steel, iron, copper, aluminum and other metals. At present, China's iron ore and nonferrous metal raw materials are heavily dependent on imports. China's hardware industry presents a clear "import, production (processing), export" industry form, and has become an important part of the international hardware industry chain, and has a close connection with the world's raw materials and product sales markets.
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