The steel market in June may be reversed; continuous favorable policy stimulus will lead to the gradual release of terminal steel demand; Chinese steel stock network analysts give such a forecast, mainly based on the central bank began to cut interest rates 0.25 on June 8. At the same time, the analyst pointed out that although interest rate cuts are a major advantage, steel prices may gain momentum to confirm the bottom; but whether the long-term sluggish production activities can lead to an increase in the price of steel products will require further observation.
According to the latest news, starting today, the central bank’s policy cuts the deposit rate by 25 basis points, but at the same time, it stipulates that the deposit interest rate can go up by 1.1 times to 3.575%; while the lower limit of the interest rate is 0.8 times, it can be achieved. 5.048%. The permissible floating rate is too high. In the case of interest rate cuts, the bank may face the adverse effect of the reduction of deposits and deposits, which will lead to the reduction of the scale of the banks in the later period; then the probability of independent deposit rates of the banks will be infinitely increased due to the market. Possible. The result of this may be the increase in deposits and the constant pattern of deposits.
On the other hand, the central bank’s three-and-a-half months restart of interest rate cuts has reflected the fact that China’s economic weakness has reached a limit that can be tolerated, and that the country’s steady growth determination has been lowered. It should also be that the CPI index may fall further in May. The upper level believes that enough space has been reserved for rate cuts.
The current round of interest-rate cuts are very different from previous cuts, and the stimulus to the real economy will be more direct; at the same time, we are also concerned that the CPI index that has just fallen will face pressure in the latter part of the year; inflation risks will promote price increases as interest rates are lowered. And to. Including housing prices, the stimulating price rebound may be realized in the near future, and the injury is mainly based on the underlying people. The May CPI released by the Bureau of Statistics on the 9th was already within the market's expectations. We are more worried about whether this time the central bank will cut interest rates will force inflation to resume.
The real estate industry may usher in a simultaneous rebound in price, and interest rate cuts will directly reduce the interest rate on mortgage loans, which will increase the demand for steel for housing purchases. Housing companies will also formally spend the most difficult period of time; with the destocking of the real estate industry. Accelerated, developers will be more relaxed in the **, capital returns and other aspects, while the real estate market after the bullish developers new developments will also be strengthened, as the occupation of steel consumption 54% of the real estate industry may once again usher in investment Strengthen the code, the long-term depressed steel market demand will usher in the release window.
However, as far as the current status of the steel market is concerned, whether or not the interest rate cut can dispel the haze over the industry is not very optimistic. Since the end of 2011, the root cause of the steel price hike has nothing but four points: 1. Steel production is too large. The supply is far greater than the demand; 2. The downstream terminal industry is sluggish, production activities are obviously weakened and difficult to recover; 3. Steel mills continue to lower ex-factory prices, market mentality is weak and difficult to change; 4, steel trade capital chain fracture risk intensifies, the middle market transactions To the freezing point, the atmosphere of the market is hard to change.
The production capacity of the upstream steel mills has begun to slow down. Data from the China Iron and Steel Association on June 8 showed that the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises in late May was 1.6122 million tons, down by 4.72% compared to the previous period; the average daily steel mill production is estimated. 195.96 million tons, a decrease of 3.92% in the end of the period. With the increase in maintenance schedules for steel mills, production capacity in the later period is expected to remain below 2 million tons; however, it will remain at a relatively high level, and it will be difficult to achieve a delicate balance between supply and demand in the short term, and continue to limit the room for steel price rises.
At the same time, the intermediate transactions in the steel market are also difficult to increase due to financial pressure; from the recent letter from the Zhouning Steel Trade and Commerce Group to the major banks, it can be known that Shanghai, as the largest gathering place for steel trade enterprises in the country, has already experienced severe risk of capital chain breaks; It is difficult for steel traders to directly enjoy the benefits of interest rate cuts, so we believe that even if the positive stimulus is strong, the intermediate transactions in the Lower Steel City may be released, but the amount will obviously not be too large, and it will be difficult for steel prices to continue to rise. power.
Perhaps the effect will be obvious in the real economy, but in the case of lower consumer demand, whether the company's production activities can be improved, the main need to look at the development of the level of inventory, if you can not stimulate the end of consumption, production Whether the company will reduce the cost of the subtleties caused by this and reverse the trend of increasing production activities and change its established decisions are more worrying. This is also the main point of concern whether this interest rate cut can really stimulate demand. However, as far as the trend of steel prices in June is concerned, it is highly probable that steel prices will bottom out, given the good market sentiment and the imminent arrival of major projects.
According to the latest news, starting today, the central bank’s policy cuts the deposit rate by 25 basis points, but at the same time, it stipulates that the deposit interest rate can go up by 1.1 times to 3.575%; while the lower limit of the interest rate is 0.8 times, it can be achieved. 5.048%. The permissible floating rate is too high. In the case of interest rate cuts, the bank may face the adverse effect of the reduction of deposits and deposits, which will lead to the reduction of the scale of the banks in the later period; then the probability of independent deposit rates of the banks will be infinitely increased due to the market. Possible. The result of this may be the increase in deposits and the constant pattern of deposits.
On the other hand, the central bank’s three-and-a-half months restart of interest rate cuts has reflected the fact that China’s economic weakness has reached a limit that can be tolerated, and that the country’s steady growth determination has been lowered. It should also be that the CPI index may fall further in May. The upper level believes that enough space has been reserved for rate cuts.
The current round of interest-rate cuts are very different from previous cuts, and the stimulus to the real economy will be more direct; at the same time, we are also concerned that the CPI index that has just fallen will face pressure in the latter part of the year; inflation risks will promote price increases as interest rates are lowered. And to. Including housing prices, the stimulating price rebound may be realized in the near future, and the injury is mainly based on the underlying people. The May CPI released by the Bureau of Statistics on the 9th was already within the market's expectations. We are more worried about whether this time the central bank will cut interest rates will force inflation to resume.
The real estate industry may usher in a simultaneous rebound in price, and interest rate cuts will directly reduce the interest rate on mortgage loans, which will increase the demand for steel for housing purchases. Housing companies will also formally spend the most difficult period of time; with the destocking of the real estate industry. Accelerated, developers will be more relaxed in the **, capital returns and other aspects, while the real estate market after the bullish developers new developments will also be strengthened, as the occupation of steel consumption 54% of the real estate industry may once again usher in investment Strengthen the code, the long-term depressed steel market demand will usher in the release window.
However, as far as the current status of the steel market is concerned, whether or not the interest rate cut can dispel the haze over the industry is not very optimistic. Since the end of 2011, the root cause of the steel price hike has nothing but four points: 1. Steel production is too large. The supply is far greater than the demand; 2. The downstream terminal industry is sluggish, production activities are obviously weakened and difficult to recover; 3. Steel mills continue to lower ex-factory prices, market mentality is weak and difficult to change; 4, steel trade capital chain fracture risk intensifies, the middle market transactions To the freezing point, the atmosphere of the market is hard to change.
The production capacity of the upstream steel mills has begun to slow down. Data from the China Iron and Steel Association on June 8 showed that the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises in late May was 1.6122 million tons, down by 4.72% compared to the previous period; the average daily steel mill production is estimated. 195.96 million tons, a decrease of 3.92% in the end of the period. With the increase in maintenance schedules for steel mills, production capacity in the later period is expected to remain below 2 million tons; however, it will remain at a relatively high level, and it will be difficult to achieve a delicate balance between supply and demand in the short term, and continue to limit the room for steel price rises.
At the same time, the intermediate transactions in the steel market are also difficult to increase due to financial pressure; from the recent letter from the Zhouning Steel Trade and Commerce Group to the major banks, it can be known that Shanghai, as the largest gathering place for steel trade enterprises in the country, has already experienced severe risk of capital chain breaks; It is difficult for steel traders to directly enjoy the benefits of interest rate cuts, so we believe that even if the positive stimulus is strong, the intermediate transactions in the Lower Steel City may be released, but the amount will obviously not be too large, and it will be difficult for steel prices to continue to rise. power.
Perhaps the effect will be obvious in the real economy, but in the case of lower consumer demand, whether the company's production activities can be improved, the main need to look at the development of the level of inventory, if you can not stimulate the end of consumption, production Whether the company will reduce the cost of the subtleties caused by this and reverse the trend of increasing production activities and change its established decisions are more worrying. This is also the main point of concern whether this interest rate cut can really stimulate demand. However, as far as the trend of steel prices in June is concerned, it is highly probable that steel prices will bottom out, given the good market sentiment and the imminent arrival of major projects.
Abrasive,Fibre Disc,Sanding Disc
Fenghua Jade Motor Co., Ltd. , http://www.nscuttingdisc.com