Wu Rongqing: Analysis of the situation of stone mining market and investment prospects

The mining and stone industry, one of the pillar industries of the country, has received extensive attention from private capital in recent years. So, what is the supply and demand situation in China's mining market in the next few years? What are its development characteristics and investment prospects? On the morning of June 9, 2012 China Stone and Mining Investment and Financing Summit was held in Hangzhou. The guests discussed the issues of mining and environmental protection, mining marketing model innovation, and how to transform and upgrade the stone industry. The following is Wu Rongqing, Chief Engineer of the Industry Development Department of China Mining Association, at the 2012 China Stone Investment and Financing Summit Forum: I am from the China Mining Association, a civil intermediary organization with an official background, an intermediary for communicating government and business. The current president of China Mining Association is also the minister of the Ministry of Land and Resources. This was approved and confirmed by the Organization Department of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, which fully demonstrated the pillar position of the mining industry in the Chinese economy. I have been engaged in mining since I graduated from the University of Nanjing in the 1970s. I have been in the industry for more than 40 years. The topic of my speech is "Analysis of China's Stone Mining Market Form and Investment Prospects", which mainly addresses three issues: The first question, the overall situation of China's mining economic operation in 2011. The review of China's mining development history during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, from 2001 to 2011, is the time for China's national economy to grow rapidly, and is also the decade of rapid development of the entire mining industry, including the stone industry. From 2001 to 2005, China's individual The total output value of mineral mining and mineral processing industry has grown from more than 220 billion to more than 560 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 20%. By 2010, its total output value will further increase to 156.56 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 22.8%, which is 2.3 percentage points higher than the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. This shows that the mining industry has grown faster than the national economy. Wu Rongqing, chief engineer of the Industry Development Department of China Mining Association, has recovered the global economy since the 2012 China Stone Investment and Financing Summit. However, the pace of recovery has slowed significantly. The deep-seated contradictions of the global economic crisis have not been effectively resolved, especially After the second half of 2011, the spread of the entire European sovereign debt crisis triggered by the Greek debt crisis also increased the uncertainties and unstable factors of the global economy, affecting the recovery of the world economy. The global mining industry showed a downward trend. In the late 1950s, China has also experienced a series of problems caused by excessive economic growth. The central government mainly relies on a series of macro-control measures to curb the excessive development of the economy. The characteristics of the analysis and development of the mining market in 2011, due to the dual pressures of resources and the environment, China’s economic development rate began to slow down in 2011, increasing by 10.4% to 9.2% in the previous year. As one of the pillar industries of the national economic development, Continue to develop in the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control. The overall supply and demand situation of mineral resources is characterized by short-term supply and demand slowdown and long-term tightening. The price of minerals fluctuates at a high level, the oscillations intensify, and the fixed investment assets of the mining industry continue to slow down. Nearly 1.1 trillion, lower than the national average of 5.1 percentage points, but there is a gradual upward trend. Some enterprises have seen an upward trend in investment. For example, the fixed assets investment in precious metal mining has reached 76.3 billion yuan, an increase of more than 30% year-on-year. The production capacity of mineral products has been increasing. The organic metals and chemical minerals and mining industries have continued to grow steadily. The output of gold continues to grow. The growth rate of material and non-metallic mineral production has progressed from rapid development to stable development. Imports of mineral products such as mineral products have maintained a relatively high growth rate, and external dependence has further improved. Mining institutions continue to optimize and corporate transactions have risen. The mining industry achieved a profit of more than 9 trillion yuan in the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 25%. This is iron ore. The profit realized by the non-ferrous metals industry reached 35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 65%. The profit of the gold industry reached 32.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%. The above data shows that the profits of mining development are far higher than the average profit level of the national industry, and become the current investment hotspot. The following is the 2011 profitability of key mining industries and key industries. The average profit level of the entire mining industry is 20.5, of which lead and zinc mines are the highest, 28.5%, molybdenum ore is 25%, copper ore is 22.6%, and iron ore is 22.3%. Coal, antimony ore is 28%, heavy metal is 19.8%, molybdenum is 17.9%, manganese ore is 14%, and silverstone is 11.7%. Due to the soaring price of silverstone, it was as high as 3,000 yuan a ton in 2011, which is 2010. Six times in January, so the 2011 silverstone industry profit margin is above 30%. The situation of the stone industry in 2011. In 2011, the investment in fixed assets of stone mining and processing was 120.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50%, which was far higher than the average level of fixed asset investment and became a hot spot. In 2010, the total sales revenue of six varieties of asbestos stone was 3.66 billion, the total profit was 823 million, and the average profit rate was 22.5%. The profit rate of the stone industry was not high, but the profit margin of asbestos stone was quite high. The second big problem is the current situation of the development of stone mining and processing industry in China. Just now, President Li spoke more specifically. I am mainly talking about some statistics of our Ministry of Land and Resources. After 30 years of rapid development in reform and opening up, our stone market has changed from small to large, from weak to strong, and earth-shaking changes have taken place. The prosperity of China's stone market and the growth of stone demand have made international stone merchants invest in China, domestic stone enterprises. It also integrates resources and actively participates in market competition. The Chinese stone market has become an indispensable force in the international stone market. In the near future, the world stone production and trade center will shift from Europe to China. At present, China's stone minerals are mainly mined in nine varieties, granite, dolomite, marble, etc. In 2010, China mined more than 3,900 mines, the total output of ore was 1.78 billion, and the total industrial output value was 39.8 billion. There are more than 30 industrial groups, mainly distributed in Fujian, Shandong, Hubei, Henan, Jilin, Hebei, Guangxi, Yunnan, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, etc. The stone production of China's stone industry group has accounted for about 80% of the national stone production. The second small problem, the characteristics of stone suppliers, is mainly based on building stone. There are three types of stone in China according to their use. One is stone for construction. It is the most important one. There are more than 3,600 stone materials for construction. , accounting for 92.2% of the total number of mines, ore output of 1.74 billion, accounting for 97.3% of the total ore output, industrial output value of 35.7 billion, accounting for 89.6% of the total industrial output value of the production industry, asbestos stone only 3,000, accounting for 7.7 of the total number of mines %, ore production is only 48.5 million tons, accounting for 2.7% of the total ore output, and the total industrial output value is 4 billion, accounting for about 10% of the total output of the stone industry. In addition, diversification of investment has led to the retreat of the country. The bureau counts more than 3,000 stone mining enterprises in China as more than 320 Chinese enterprises, accounting for 0.8%. The rest are private enterprises, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan foreign-funded enterprises, and the total output value of state-owned enterprises. It accounts for 2.2% of the total output value. The average profit rate of the stone industry is not high. The total sales revenue of large-scale production enterprises is 207 billion, the profit is only 15.4 billion, and the profit rate is only 7.4%, but the profit rate of the asbestos stone industry in this market is 22.5%. Fourth, the import and export trade of stone enterprises is developed. China has become a major stone producer, consumer and trade country in the world, but it is not yet a strong country. The second small problem, the development scale of asbestos stone, should be said that asbestos stone is the main aspect of the stone industry. Compared with building materials, both the block material and the plate are high value-added products, of course, the processed plate is attached. The value is higher, which is supported and encouraged by the state. However, there are only 410 large-scale mining of asbestos stone in the country, and only 452 are medium-sized. The Others are small and small. The mining capacity of the block is greater than one. There are no more than 100 mines of 100 million cubic meters. Third, there are problems. First, the industrial concentration is poor. According to statistics, there are currently 2,586 large-scale stone mines in the country, accounting for 6.6% of the total number of stone mines, and only 1640% of the medium-sized ones, accounting for 4.2% of the total. That is to say, large and medium-sized mines account for only 10.8% of the national total. Second, asbestos stone accounts for too little total stone output, less than 3%. Third, the production of stone for construction is too large, reaching 755 million. A considerable amount of it may be derived from high-quality cement limestone for cement production. If it is used as building stone, it is a serious waste of resources, which is not allowed by national policies. . The third major issue is the analysis of stone and mining development and investment prospects. First, the demand for bulk commodities is still strong under the new macroeconomic situation. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period is an important period for building a well-off society in an all-round way. It is an important period for accelerating the economic recovery and economic and social development. Facing the complicated and ever-changing situation at home and abroad, the overall supply and demand situation of mineral resources is grim, showing a situation of tight external tension. In the international competition for mineral resources, competition has intensified, resource product prices have remained high, and the cost of acquiring resources has increased. Just now, President Li said that many of Zhejiang Zheshang’s investment in mining are at a loss. Many people are now abroad, but they are not optimistic about the status quo from abroad. The cost is constantly increasing, especially when our domestic capital goes abroad. Unfamiliar with the foreign investment environment, many of them are at a loss, and there are not many real successes. Therefore, when investing abroad, you must be more cautious and careful in the country. In China, although the large-scale construction is coming to an end, the central government has voluntarily given up the insurance and lowered the growth forecast of GDP this year by 7.5%, indicating that the government is considering the quality of GDP and restructuring it to alleviate the growing resources. And environmental pressure, but this does not mean a reduction in demand for minerals. On the contrary, with the intensification of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, the rigid demand for mineral resources will continue to grow, the situation of the contradiction between supply and demand of resources has not changed fundamentally, and the central government has introduced policies to reverse the rapid economic downturn. For example, Bao Ba, the demand for minerals should not be reduced, but there is further growth. It is predicted that by 2015 China's iron ore finished mines will reach 1.32 billion, and the supply and demand gap will reach 650 million tons. At this time, the price of finished ore will remain at a higher price of 120 US dollars per ton. By 2020, the demand for iron ore will still not be less than 500 million, manganese ore will remain above 15 million tons, and in 2020 it will drop to 13 million tons. By 2015, the demand for copper will reach 9.85 million tons. By that time, the domestic copper production will only be 1.6 million tons. The domestic copper raw materials can only meet 40% of the demand, that is, the gap will reach 5.9 million tons. The price of copper in the future will be Continue to run at a high level above $6,000. The same is true for lead-zinc mine consumption, reaching 6.65 million tons and 6.64 million tons by 2015. At this time, our supply and demand gap for lead and zinc will reach 800,000 tons and 1.3 million tons respectively, and the price of lead and zinc is also 2,000. A higher price of $2,500 a ton. The gap in tin is also very large. Now tin has changed from the original dominant minerals to the shortage of minerals. The investment in tin mines is not controlled by the total amount. In the future, the state will abolish export control and encourage development. Tin ore and molybdenum mines are still subject to policy regulation. Policy, but due to the need to achieve commitments to WTO-related mechanisms, the state will gradually loosen export controls, and the demand for stone products will still maintain a huge base, but the growth rate will slow down. There are huge gaps in these mineral products, some of which can be solved by strengthening the development of domestic resources and improving the supply capacity of raw products. The national policy is based on domestic and full use of resources, at least in the first 30 years of this century. It is a hot spot for investment in China, and the diversification of mining investment is a development trend. Therefore, the national circulation of the people in the society has no reason to retreat. After more than 20 years, the growth of stone materials has not increased year by year, with an average annual growth rate of 10%. Experts predict that the demand for building stone and asbestos stone will continue to grow in the future. The development prospects of the stone industry can be expected. With the sustained and steady growth of the national economy, the development trend of stone will be stronger, especially asbestos stone, which has huge development space for both processing industry and mining industry. Second, talk about policy orientation. The government encourages private companies to invest in entrepreneurship. In order to provide more mineral resources for economic construction, the relevant state departments have formulated a strategic plan for the prospecting breakthrough. This outline is jointly formulated by the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Public Information and the Ministry of Land and Resources under the care of Premier Wen. And through the implementation of the State Council executive meeting, the outline defines the objectives and tasks of China's mineral exploration work in the future, through the implementation of the prospecting strategy, to achieve new major breakthroughs, the formation of a number of important mineral resources strategic agglomeration, for the economy Smooth and rapid development provides favorable resource guarantee and industrial support. The Ministry of Land and Resources research program, this program will build an institutional platform in accordance with the laws of the market economy, attract various social funds, including private capital, to invest in mining, diversify mining investment, and improve resource security and supply capacity. In the year, we achieved significant progress in prospecting, achieved major breakthroughs in prospecting in five years, reorganized new prospects for mineral exploration and development in eight to ten years, promoted the resource industry to expand into the country and expand overseas, and established an important resource reserve base. I mentioned above the gap between supply and demand, such as iron ore, copper ore, lead-zinc mine, tungsten mine, antimony ore, tin mine. These are all important minerals planned. The country has formed a large base through self-construction survey, so the land resources The Ministry has implemented the first batch of 47-day prospecting breakthrough strategies in the country, most of which can become resource bases. The state plans to conduct mineral exploration during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period to form important mineral resource reserves, and iron ore should form 10 billion tons. Manganese ore should form 750 million tons, copper ore should form 15 million tons, lead-zinc ore should form 40 million tons, gold ore should form 1600 tons, tungsten ore should form 2 million tons, and molybdenum ore should form 2 million tons. Turning into an economic advantage, the state encourages various social funds to invest in mineral resources and prioritizes mining rights. Geological survey work has two steps, the first step, the risk investigation in the early stage, which is the state investment, the second step is commercial exploration, and it is necessary to absorb social funds, especially the funds of private enterprises to follow up exploration. The Ministry of Land and Resources clearly stated in the No. 55 of 2011 that social funds can be introduced into the implementation of inadequate surveying capabilities. The central and local financial funds are mainly used for public welfare geological work, and they must be publicly distributed to the public. This actually points out that the financial funds only It can play a role in geological exploration, but it is not allowed to compete with others. In some places, the practice is wrong. Government funds are not allowed to engage in exploration. The document also stipulates that large-scale mineral deposits should be introduced to large enterprises, advanced technology should be used for mining, and large enterprises and various social funds should be encouraged to follow up. This big enterprise and social funds have provided opportunities for mineral rights. In the future, the allocation of resources must be directed toward large and powerful enterprises, and there is no such phenomenon that the so-called national advancement and retreat. The small coal mines invested in 2011 were integrated and lost a lot. This is a policy change. The second is the issue of mineral rights. We will have the opportunity to talk about this issue in the future. However, the central government's policy is now very clear, and encourages all kinds of social funds to follow up during the survey stage. The Ministry of Land and Resources explores the absorption of various social funds in the process of self-installation pilots, and follows up the progress of the survey, such as Anhui, by the Anhui Local Bureau. Responsible with the WISCO Group, the public welfare geological prospecting work and commercial survey work are closely combined, and the commercial survey and mining plans are closely linked to achieve a breakthrough in prospecting. Organize the project management center, first select and determine the two major enterprises with strength as the main body, respectively integrate the mining rights of gold mines and lead-zinc mines, and then implement unified planning and unified design by the project management center, but the technical plan is from the provincial land. The research institutes of the Ministry of Resources, information sharing, unified comprehensive research, and survey work are carried out by two main bodies. Only two subjects in the blank area are configured according to the depositing conditions. For minerals with surveying properties, the geological prospecting units are given a certain degree. Reward, the results of investigation and formation are owned by the enterprise and the investor. The third is the Manipo model in Yunnan. This is the molybdenum mine. It was originally chaotic and excavated. Later, under the unified leadership of the government, the WISCO Group invested 1.5 billion to carry out the integration of molybdenum ore. The survey results showed that the molybdenum mine was originally The 60,000 tons will increase to 300,000 tons, and the reserves of molybdenum resources may reach 700,000 tons. In the third mode, our China Mining Association will combine the characteristics of the above models, absorb social funds, and clarify the interests of all parties through a round-table discussion and signing contract form, establish a shareholder system, and implement the installation under the guidance of the government. Development, currently this program has been approved by the Ministry of Land and Resources. The China Mining Association has set up a private enterprise summit to welcome private enterprises in Zhejiang to participate. Zheshang has a huge capital and can safely and conscientiously carry out exploration work through resources. The funds follow up and obtain mining rights through commercial exploration. Although there are certain risks, the cost is relatively small. Iron ore, manganese ore, lead-zinc, gold and silverstone are the preferred choices for Zheshang investment. Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Sichuan, Yunnan, Gansu, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, and Hunan are some of the hotspots in China. However, in order to be realistic, the current national policy is to allocate resources to powerful enterprises and make them bigger. Stronger China's mineral enterprises, to increase the concentration, if you still play as small as before, earn money to go, this is not a big event, and will eventually be eliminated by history, this is a bloody lesson. In this respect, private enterprises in Guangxi are ahead. At present, there are about 1,000 private enterprises participating in mineral exploration in Guangxi, accounting for 90% of the surveyed enterprises. The surveyed area is 30,000 square kilometers, accounting for more than 60% of the total surveyed area, and the investment is 20 billion. Accounting for 80% of all invested funds, the local government geological survey authorities are mainly to review the approval, regulation, and supervision before the survey in strict accordance with the access regulations of laws and regulations, to ensure the access to the basic conditions of the surveyee. If you do not have the conditions, you cannot enter. Through the implementation of the program to carry out the work, complete the minimum survey input, through the annual annual inspection, create a good environment and space that does not meet the requirements, I hope that Zhejiang businessmen will join forces to appear on the stage in Zhejiang. Third, the construction of new mines and project financing is the way for Zheshang to invest and start businesses. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the state will increase the intensity of mineral development to meet the growing demand for minerals. For example, iron ore should be planned. By 2015, there will be 8 new mines with a capacity of 10 million tons, 15 mines with 5 million tons, 20 mines with 2 million tons, and 80 million tons of finished mines. The production capacity, as well as other large minerals, will increase the production capacity of copper and gold mines by 1.3 million tons in 2015 and the production capacity of new lead-zinc mines by 2.3 million tons. The prospects for future mining investment are expected. At present, in addition to some of the existing resources, some of the reserves of mineral resources in China are mineral resources that can be identified. Many of these mines have relatively low reserves and cannot meet the actual needs of mine construction. Early investigation. The cost of the newly built project is relatively large, but the risk is small, and high efficiency can be achieved after half of the production. It is recommended that private capital invest in a less risky way by participating in the mine construction project and the previous mining exploration. China's iron ore has more than 1,200 planned mining areas, and the identified resources account for 40% of the national total. That is to say, 40% of the reserves require commercial exploration. If private enterprises participate at this time, how much? A good condition, the iron ore is now 120 dollars, the profit is rich, tell everyone a message, the production cost of Angang Iron Mine is only 155 yuan a ton, you can buy 1000 to 1200 tons, the profit is doubled, everyone can Take a look. Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Anhui, which have a large amount of product resources, have a proven reserve of more than 1.5 billion tons of iron ore in these provinces, and some places are large. The five provinces of Henan, Shanxi, Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Jiangxi are all over 300 million tons. Jilin, Qinghai, Shanxi, Hubei, Gansu, Heilongjiang, and Hainan are all over 100 million tons. In addition, the West Tianshan, which was recently discovered in Xinjiang. The reserves of resources have reached 10 to 1.5 billion, which are all newly discovered. Some large mines have been discovered in the border between Qinghai and Xinjiang. The development cost of iron ore in these places is very low and the scale is large. Living in opportunities will definitely yield considerable profits. The reserves of manganese ore are more than 100 million. Among them, several large provinces, Guangxi and Sichuan are relatively large in recent years. There are several in Inner Mongolia, and there are several mining areas in Hunan. These reserves can meet the needs of small and medium-sized mines. The need for copper mines is 500. After the identification, there are 32 million tons. In recent years, some newly discovered copper deposits are generally low in level and need to be commercialized. There are 29 mines in Jiangxi, 51 in Xinjiang, and 4 in Guangdong. One, there are five in Tibet. The reserves of these planned mines are relatively low. Some places have no reserves at all. All of them are resources and need to be explored commercially. If the degree of exploration is relatively high, it is generally not necessary to conduct commercial exploration. Private capital can invest in mine development through participation. In the planned use of copper mines, it is possible to build mines with medium-sized or above scales. Better, due to the new discovery of lead-zinc mines in recent years, the total extent of planned mining areas is relatively low. There are 14 lead-zinc mining areas in Jiangxi, 12 in Qinghai, 32 in Guangxi, 38 in lead-free mining areas in Henan, and 30 in zinc mining areas. There are 25 lead-type mining areas in Shaanxi and 34 zinc-mining areas. The lead-zinc mines in these provinces have already identified a large amount of resources. A total of eight provinces have a low proportion, and there is an urgent need for social funds to follow up. exploration. In Hebei and Heilongjiang, there is a certain proportion of the proven reserves, but the proportion is not high. Private capital can also choose good projects, and directly participate in the early stage of exploration in the form of exploration to obtain the effect of profits. China's lead-zinc mines, lead and zinc are symbiotic, and there are a large number of rare metals in the second, so the development value is very large. At present, the total amount of regulation and control is being implemented, but the intensity of the total regulation has already taken effect. One is the tin mine. From the superior minerals, the country has been very strict in regulating the amount of minerals, and the country is actively encouraging development and exploration. There are 73 mines that can be exploited and developed, with a total of 8.7 billion, including five in Inner Mongolia, 16 in Guangdong and 14 in Guangxi. The reserves in these three provinces are very low, requiring social capital to follow up. Commercial exploration. There are 67 tin mines, and the identified resource reserves are 1 million tons, of which the basic reserves are only 60,000 tons. Welcome everyone. There are two in Tibet, seven in Guangxi, nine in Yunnan, and seven in Gansu. These four provinces and districts can be planned to use the mining area, which is a new discovery in recent years. The degree of investigation is very low, and the degree of technology is very small. Social funds follow up for commercial exploration. Tungsten mine has 65 planned mining areas, of which only 60,000 tons of technical reserves, only 8%. Recently, a large-scale mining area with a resource reserve of 1.06 million tons was discovered in Jiangxi. This 1.06 million tons means China's tungsten mine. The reserves will increase by a quarter. How did this mine be discovered? It was discovered by the Geological Bureau of the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Land and Resources. Later, after discovering that the prospect of the mine was not very good, the mining rights were transferred to the private enterprises, and the private enterprises got a Dajin Mountain. No one thought that there would be 1.06 million tons, so the risk exploration Although there are risks, once it is discovered, its profits are huge. Among the current planned mining areas, there are four in Xinjiang, four in Heilongjiang, three in Guangxi, and seven in Hunan. The planned mining areas in these provinces are newly discovered in recent geological surveys. Very low, various social funds follow up for commercial exploration. Besides molybdenum ore, the existing resource conditions are very rich, very rich, and there are big discoveries, but because of the small amount, it is also an object of national total control. I don’t make investment suggestions here, I hope everyone Be cautious when investing, and if you spend money to buy mineral rights, you may have a small profit. I just recommend it. The asbestos stone industry has investment value. First, China's stone has already utilized the mining area and the resources already occupied only account for about half of the identified resources. For example, the national asbestos stone and asbestos granite have utilized 148 mining areas, respectively, accounting for the national asbestos granite mining area. And ascertaining about 50% of the resource reserves, the asbestos marble situation is a little worse than the asbestos granite. It has 93 mining areas, accounting for 49% and 69% of the national asbestos marble mining area and the identified resources, respectively. Second, there are still quite a few untouched asbestos stones available for investment. According to the data, the current national asbestos granite can be planned to use 143 mining areas, and the proven resource reserves are nearly 1 billion cubic meters. There are 96 mining areas with asbestos marble, and 340 million cubic meters of resources can be ascertained. There are 12 places with a resource reserve of 14 million tons of cubic meters, five in Shandong, four in Guangxi, five in Hainan, twelve in Jilin, sixteen in Heilongjiang and three in Beijing. These are comparisons. Large mining area. Another, asbestos marble can be planned to have more than 10 million tons in the mining area, eight in Guangdong, seven in Shaanxi, and two in Henan. In this place, this is the above table, in fact, various places are in the rock. The bare place is easy to find, as long as the geological team is a little more careful. Private capital can choose a good project, directly involved in exploration work, direct investment in the form of shareholding control, and obtain effect rights.

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