China's official manufacturing PMI in July is expected to remain moderately expanding

According to the median estimate of 23 comprehensive analysts of Reuters, China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is expected to remain unchanged from last month, just below the 50-kilometer line, indicating that China’s manufacturing industry has maintained a moderate expansion. The situation. However, analysts believe that with the high level of the real estate market, the manufacturing industry has downside risks.
Nie Wen, a macro analyst at Huabao Trust, said, “China’s June credit data is relatively high, power generation coal consumption is relatively stable in July, and fiscal expenditures have recently increased. The manufacturing PMI in July should be similar to that of the previous month.”
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank [0.00% Capital Research], said that PMI reflects the economic changes. High-frequency data show that with the advent of high temperature summer, coal consumption in power plants rebounded in the first half of July, and it is expected that PMI may rise slightly in July to 50.1.
However, the political commissar of Lu believes that the main economic indicators in July, including industrial added value, fixed asset investment, new loans, social financing scale, M2 will have different degrees of decline, while pork prices continue to be moderate due to the increase in vegetable prices in July. Down, it is expected that the CPI will continue to decline to 1.7% in July.
The latest Politburo meeting said that China's economic downturn pressure is still relatively large, and there are some risks that must be highly valued. In the second half of the year, we will continue to implement active fiscal and prudent monetary policies, moderately expand aggregate demand, and create supply-side structural reforms. Good macro environment.
The manufacturing PMI is a composite index [-0.50%], which is weighted by five major diffusion indices in accordance with internationally accepted practices. Usually the PMI index is above 50, reflecting the overall expansion of the economy, while below 50 reflects the economic downturn.