Polysilicon production capacity is invested in Xinjiang electricity price

Under the impact of the import of polysilicon in the United States, Europe, and South Korea, China's polysilicon industry has shown a "dead" trend. Of the 43 companies that have already invested in polysilicon, only six are still in production. However, as domestic polysilicon production capacity is concentrated in Xinjiang with resource advantages, China's polysilicon industry may be turning to an inflection point. The key to this is the price of electricity. In high-energy industries such as polysilicon, electricity costs account for 30%-50% of the total cost. Therefore, looking for low-cost regions has become the key to the breakthrough of the polysilicon industry. In fact, mainland China is not the most advantageous region for manufacturing polysilicon in the world. In terms of industrial electricity, the average electricity price in the United States, South Korea and Taiwan is lower.

At present, Daxin Energy Co., Ltd. and TBEA have turned their attention to the west and built a polysilicon production line in Xinjiang. Among them, the new 5,000-ton production line of Xinjiang New Energy has been fully produced in March this year, and the TBEA Xinjiang 12,000-ton production line is expected to be fully produced in September this year.

Xinjiang: National electricity prices

Daxin Energy is the largest solar energy production enterprise in Chongqing. It specializes in R&D, manufacturing and sales of polysilicon and silicon wafers. Currently, it has two production companies, one in Wanzhou, Chongqing and the other in Xinjiang. Among them, Chongqing Wanzhou has an annual output of 4,300 tons of polysilicon, and the Xinjiang production line is scheduled to expand to 12,000 tons by the end of 2014.

“Xinjiang is a low-lying land for electricity prices in the country. At present, the electricity price of Shihezi’s open investment is 0.33 yuan/kWh. In 2010, the preferential electricity price was 0.31 yuan/kWh when the factory was built in Shihezi,” said Yao Gongda, CEO of Daxin Energy.

For reference, in most parts of central and eastern China, 0.33 yuan / kWh is the price of desulfurization and out-of-stock electricity, that is, the price at which power generation companies sell electricity to grid companies. The electricity price of industrial enterprises is about 0.5 yuan / kWh in the central and eastern regions. Xinjiang's low electricity price is benefited from its abundant coal resources. According to the current preliminary exploration data, Xinjiang's coal resources account for more than 40% of the country's total.

Daxin Energy Xinjiang Polysilicon Production Line is located in Shihezi City, which is an hour and a half drive from Urumqi.

“The reason why Shihezi City is chosen is that Shihezi City has an independent power grid with independent pricing power and can obtain more favorable electricity prices.” Yao Gongda said.

According to the data provided by Shenyin Wanguo, the current cost of polysilicon production per kilogram of polysilicon, the leading polysilicon leader in China, accounts for roughly US$7.6/kg, while the Xinjiang line of Daxin Energy is US$4/kg.

At present, the global polysilicon is mainly based on the improved Siemens method. Due to the natural limitations of the technical route, it has reached the limit of reducing the energy consumption of production. The power consumption per kilogram of polysilicon is about 80 kWh.

Yao Gongda said that the production cost of the new energy Xinjiang production line has dropped to US$15/kg in the second quarter of this year. “At the end of this year, we will strive to drop to US$14/kg. By the end of next year, we plan to drop below US$12 per kilogram.”

In fact, the low electricity price in the Shihezi area is only part of the “story”. Yao Gongda said that the steam price here is only 1/6-1/5 of the central and eastern regions, and steam is also necessary in the polysilicon process. “With the addition of liquid chlorine, the production costs of the company can be reduced.”

Zhou Xuhui, a Shenyin Wanguo power equipment and new energy analyst, expects the cost of the TBEA Xinjiang polysilicon production line to drop to 13.3 US dollars / kg this year. The cost of polysilicon from Poly GCL is roughly $18/kg. GCL-Poly is the world's largest polysilicon producer with an existing capacity of 65,000 tons/year.

Polysilicon supply gap

However, for the moment, the entire polysilicon industry is still "hurricane".

According to the research report released by the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association in July this year, the domestic polysilicon production was 28,000 tons in the first half of this year, down 23.6% year-on-year; the spot price of polysilicon was basically maintained at 130,000 yuan/ton, down 4.2% year-on-year. Continue the decline since last year. It is worth noting that in the domestic production of 28,000 tons, the production of a company in the sub-sector of Poly GCL is more than 22,000 tons, accounting for 78.6% of the total domestic output. This means that the vast majority of the rest of the company did not have supply in the first half of the year.

However, with the release of China's polysilicon "double reverse" preliminary results, this situation will change. Zhou Xuhui said, "There is now a gap in the supply of polysilicon. Currently, there is a need for cooperation in demand, as well as some catalysts, such as the introduction of the New Deal.

According to PV industry insiders, unlike the twists and turns of downstream PV modules, the effective capacity of upstream polysilicon has basically been consolidated, and the surviving polysilicon enterprises will have a good market prospect in the future.

Wang Cheng, chief financial officer of Sunshine Sunshine, expects that there will be a shortage of polysilicon with a production cost of less than US$20/kg from the end of 2013 or the beginning of 2014. At this point, the surviving polysilicon enterprises will usher in an inflection point.

As the main raw material of photovoltaic cells, the cost of polysilicon has a significant impact on the price of photovoltaic power generation. If photovoltaic power generation can achieve parity online at an early date, the explosive growth of photovoltaic applications will come, and the crisis of the entire photovoltaic industry will be lifted.

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