The abandoned polysilicon market rebounded slightly

Along with the downturn in the photovoltaic market, the polysilicon business has been hit hard. In this context, many famous PV companies have gradually divested or even withdrawn from the polysilicon business. I don’t know when, polysilicon, which is favored by the capital market, has changed overnight. It became a burden and a burden.
At the beginning of this year, Aerospace Electronics took the lead in withdrawing from the polysilicon business. Shanghai Airlines bought a 29.70% stake in Shenzhou Silicon in cash. Although Aerospace Electromechanical still holds 19.63% of the shares in Shenzhou Silicon, this move is almost the same as the “stripping” polysilicon assets. For the decision of Aerospace Electromechanical, a brokerage analyst once thought that "this means that Aerospace Electromechanical will eliminate high-cost polysilicon packaging, and the future profitability is expected to be actually improved." During the same period, more listed companies such as Sichuan Investment Energy and Leshan Power, which are dragged down by the polysilicon business, are also squandering the divestiture of polysilicon assets.

In July of this year, Jiangsu Sunshine also expressed its readiness to withdraw from the polysilicon business. Last year, Ningxia Silicon Company, a subsidiary of the company, lost nearly 1.5 billion yuan. Judging from the 2012 annual report of Jiangsu Sunshine, the operating income of the polysilicon industry decreased by 74.67% year-on-year, which was at a loss. At that time, when investing in polysilicon business, the unit price of polysilicon was nearly 500 US dollars/kg. Unexpectedly, the financial crisis and the European debt crisis, and the polysilicon industry will turn sharply. The lowest price is 18 US dollars/kg. Therefore, the wrist-cut polysilicon is chosen to avoid greater losses.

Then in August, Dongji Electric Group Chairman Wang Ji revealed: “Polysilicon is not our strength, we have decided to withdraw.” As early as last year, the Audit Commission’s report showed that Dongfang Electric Group’s Semiconductor Materials Co., Ltd. invested 1.833 billion yuan. The construction of polysilicon projects did not meet the industry access standards, did not fully pass the environmental protection acceptance, and there are problems such as low capacity utilization rate and low product qualification rate, and the operating losses are serious. The plant was discontinued a year and a half ago. Wang Ji said that the production of polysilicon environmental protection and electricity costs are high, and they are at a disadvantage in the competition, so they must withdraw.

With the collapse of small and medium-sized polysilicon enterprises in the second half of the year and the increase in industrial concentration, it will help leading enterprises to expand their market share and reverse the current trend. However, for the polysilicon segment, the report pointed out that in the first half of the year, there were only 8 polysilicon enterprises in China, and nearly 80% of polysilicon enterprises stopped production. Some enterprises that have been out of production for a long time and are not competitive will be gradually eliminated by the market.

Despite this, the Ministry of Commerce's high import tariffs on photovoltaic grade polysilicon originating in South Korea and the United States are also affecting the overall recovery of polysilicon. According to the figures disclosed at present, China's polysilicon imports in July 2013 were 6877.9 tons, with an average unit price of 19.98 US dollars / kg. The import volume of polysilicon last month was 4800.6 tons, an increase of 43.3% from the previous month.

From a period of time to come, the decline in the amount of polysilicon imported from South Korea and the United States will be further revealed. Although there is no higher tariff on polysilicon from Germany, the amount of imported polysilicon from Germany will increase, but in general, China's imports of polysilicon will decrease, resulting in a change in the supply and demand of polysilicon. Therefore, the price is expected to rise, and some polysilicon enterprises in China will increase production. Some enterprises will resume production, and the production of domestic polysilicon will increase, which will definitely suppress the increase in polysilicon prices.

Due to the frenzied decline in polysilicon prices in 2012, the company's shutdown rate reached 90%. Therefore, even if the price rises, there will be no more than seven or eight companies that can continue to start production, and the concentration of polysilicon products will be greatly improved. In addition, even if the price rises, the two trends in the development of the polysilicon industry in 2013 will not change: imports are still far greater than self-production, and about two-thirds of the products still need to be solved through imports; polysilicon companies are difficult to achieve profitability due to current polysilicon prices. Too low, so even if it is raised to more than 20 US dollars / kg, it is difficult for domestic large-scale polysilicon enterprises to achieve profitability. By 2014, the polysilicon market is expected to return to the right track.

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