A person interviewed in Shanghai pointed out that "in fact, the amount of A-shares in the north of the country is not too large. In March this year, there was a net outflow of more than 10 billion in the day. At the end of April, there was also a net in the day. With more than 6 billion outflows, compared with the overall panic selling situation of A-shares today, the capital from the north or the part of the foreign capital represented in its sense is relatively calm."
The stock market "stunned one day"
On May 6, affected by external factors, the three major stock indexes of A-shares opened lower and closed lower. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.58% to close at 2906.46 points; Shenzhen Component Index fell 7.56% to close at 8943.52 points; the ChiNext Index fell 7.94% to close 1494.89 points. Specifically, 3,466 stocks in the two cities fell, of which 1,146 stocks fell, and the thousand stocks fell again. On the same day, the total market value of A shares evaporated 3.58 trillion yuan. Just 30 seconds before the opening of the day, the central bank issued a targeted RRR cut, but it did not seem to be able to hedge the “bad mood†of the stock market. At the same time, the global stock market also fell across the board on the same day, the US stock index also fell sharply. Affected by the turmoil in the capital market, global risk aversion has heated up rapidly.
It is also a trading day that can be loaded into the history of A shares.
On May 6th, A-shares showed a unilateral downward trend throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 6.6%, and the intraday low fell to 2874.47 points. The GEM index once fell 8.4%, and the intraday lowest fell to 1478.45 points.
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.58% to close at 2906.46 points, barely holding the 2900-point integer mark; Shenzhen Component Index fell 7.56% to close at 8943.52 points; the GEM index fell 7.94% to close at 1494.89 points, falling below the 1500-point integer mark.
In terms of individual stocks, 3,466 stocks in the two cities fell, and more than 1,140 stocks fell to the limit, repeating the tragic scene of “thousands of stocks fallingâ€. On only one trading day, the total market value of A shares evaporated 3.58 trillion yuan.
Under the plunging, many institutions bluntly said that in the short term, the adjustment will still be the main tone of the A-share market.
Image source: Photographed network
Northward funds "back to the carbine"
The A-share's "Li Xia" day is chilly.
For many investors, there are not a few stop-and-go tickets, and they are not even involved in this day.
However, as the panic spread, Northbound funds continued to play according to their own routines. On the 6th of May, in the morning, the north of the fund, which was still insane, rushed out to "return the carbine."
The data showed that at the close of the morning of May 6, the total net outflow of funds from the north was 8.19 billion yuan, of which the net outflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 5.83 billion yuan, and the net outflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 2.36 billion yuan; however, as of the afternoon closing, the net outflow of funds from the north It was reduced to 5.188 billion yuan, of which the net outflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 3.072 billion yuan on the day, and the net outflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 2.116 billion yuan.
The comparison shows that the net outflow of funds from the North on the afternoon of May 6 decreased by about 3 billion yuan. This means that some of the funds from the north began to buy in the afternoon, and these funds are mainly from the Shanghai Stock Connect channel.
"The net outflow amount has narrowed, indicating that some funds are indeed selected for bottom-hunting." On May 6, a person interviewed in Shanghai pointed out to reporters that "in fact, the amount of A-shares in the north of the capital is not too large today. In March of this year, there was a net outflow of more than 10 billion in the day. At the end of April, there was also a net outflow of more than 6 billion in the day. Compared with the overall panic selling situation of A shares today, the capital in the north or part of its significance The foreign investment represented on the list is relatively calm."
From the details of the top ten active stocks of Shanghai Stock Connect before May 6, Guizhou Maotai (600519.SH) was the net selling of the most stocks. On that day, Shanghai Stock Connect bought the stock of 1.662 billion yuan and sold 3.093 billion yuan. The total net sales amounted to 1.43 billion yuan, accounting for nearly half of the net outflow of Shanghai Stock Connect. This means that in addition to Guizhou Maotai, the amount of other stocks sold by Shanghai Stock Connect funds is not too large.
In terms of Shenzhen Stock Connect, the top two active stocks in the day, the two net stocks with the largest net selling were Gree Electric (000651.SZ) and Ping An Bank (000001.SZ), respectively, which were sold by Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 801 million yuan. Yuan and 664 million yuan.
In this regard, some private equity investors bluntly said, "From the perspective of these stocks that are mainly sold in the north, it is hard to say whether real foreign capital is selling."
Clearance or bargain-hunting?
Compared with the “reverse†operation of the funds in the afternoon, the A-share internal funds have almost no resistance to the big drop.
On May 6, a private equity person in South China told reporters that its position had dropped to around 20% last week, but it still suffered a certain impact in today's crash. Due to the pessimistic expectations of the market outlook, its latest position has been further reduced to below 10%.
On the same day, another private equity person also revealed to reporters that he had reduced his position. It pointed out that “the index showed a certain rebound shortly after the announcement of the targeted RRR cut, and the decline has narrowed. I immediately reduced the position and ate a few more 'faces'.â€
Compared to lightening the position, “bargaining†does require more courage. A private equity source in Guangzhou said that it had cleared all positions before the “May 1st†holiday and there was no bargain-hunting action today. It pointed out that "previously, A shares may have to face adjustments for a long period of time, so the first clearance is waiting for opportunities, but there is no expectation that there will be such a situation today. The market sentiment is really too bad. Start with the bottom."
Many institutional people bluntly said that it is not the best time to bargain.
On May 6th, a private equity person in South China pointed out that “the matching position is facing a stop loss, and the market will not rebound immediately. Now it is not the time to cut the bottom. At present, when testing the position, the garbage stocks are estimated to be completely scrapped. â€
Another privately-reported person interviewed also said that “the central bank’s shots have not played any effect today because the market panic is very serious. The Sino-US trade consultations are still full of variables. Now it’s obviously not the best time to cut the bargain. Even this year’s election Cang's, certainly not dare to attract a lot of money. Of course, some tickets can really pay attention, and the plunge provides a good opportunity to enter."
It is worth mentioning that although many institutions have reduced their positions in the A-share adjustment in late April, the overall position is still at a medium-high position, which determines that the panic slump in the market is more difficult for the institution to further increase the position. .
According to the calculation data of the position of the Good Buy Fund Research Center, the week before the May Day, the partial stock-type public funds generally reduced the position by 1.42%, and the position as of the end of April was 65.41%. Among them, the stock fund position decreased by 2.22%, and the standard hybrid fund decreased by 1.31%. As of the end of April, the positions were 88.00% and 62.40% respectively.
In terms of private equity funds, according to data from the Rongzhi Rating Research Center, the average position of stock strategy private equity funds as of the end of April was 74.09%, which was less than 1 percentage point lower than the 74.87% in the same period of the previous month. Not big, still staying at a relatively high level. It can be seen that most private equity funds maintain high positions before the May Day holiday.
Short-term risk appetite
Of course, the key factor in curbing the strength of bargain-hunting is still the high degree of uncertainty in the direction of Sino-US trade consultations. Many institutions believe that Sino-US trade negotiations will have a greater suppression of the risk appetite of A shares in the short term.
After the trading on May 6, the Golden Eagle Fund analysis pointed out that A shares are currently in the first shock adjustment phase since the beginning of the current round of the market. The negative news from the Sino-US trade consultations has impacted the short-term risk appetite of the A-share market, which was originally in the stage of shock adjustment, or deepened the adjustment range of the current A-share market.
Golden Eagle Fund said that if 50 billion + 200 billion products are subject to tariffs of 25%, the industries with the greatest profit impact are electronic appliances, building materials, machinery and equipment, and automobiles. If all products are subject to a 25% tariff, the industries with the most marginal profit margins are electronics, textiles, clothing and machinery.
However, Golden Eagle Fund believes that the event suppresses short-term risk appetite, but does not change the main logic of this round of A-share market, which is supported by policy shift, long-term structural reform and credit expansion, and profit stabilization. After moderate adjustment or re-emerged on dips The opportunity for layout. At this stage, or enter the time period of the gradual addition of the index fund on the left side, as for the configuration on the right side of the profit bottom, grasp the industry profit clues.
The China Merchants Fund also analyzed on the same day that in the short term, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade negotiations will increase again, and the market needs to absorb the negative expectations of the swing. In the medium term, the market will re-correct the understanding of Sino-US relations, but we believe that even in the most pessimistic scenario, more policy instruments will be used in China to hedge the impact of external uncertainty, taking into account the sharp decline. The attractiveness of the valuation level of the current point is gradually increasing, and it is not appropriate to be too pessimistic about the A-share trend in the medium term.
In addition, the Huashang Fund believes that in the context of the weakening of the profitability of industrial enterprises in 2019, the upward momentum of the A-share market is more due to the risk-recovery trend of the risk-free yield trend and the rise in risk appetite, due to the A-share market. The valuation has been fixed to a relatively reasonable level, and short-term variables may re-emerge against the already cautious sentiment of the market itself, and risk appetite may fall further. Considering that the economy has obviously stabilized in the first quarter, under the background of fiscal strength and credit improvement, the effects of infrastructure and real estate cooperation have already appeared. At the same time, manufacturing investment still has downward pressure during the total stimulus period, and liquidity continues. The probability of a substantial improvement is not very large, and overall cautiously optimistic about the A-share market in the second quarter.
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