Double anti-lost support for photovoltaic industry recovery

Abstract The measures to curb overseas polysilicon dumping by China have been encouraged and encouraged, and the demand for polysilicon under the stimulation of the construction of photovoltaic power plants has been driven. After the Spring Festival, the spot price of domestic solar grade polysilicon still continues the strong upward trend before the holiday. According to the data learned on February 9th...
The measures to curb overseas polysilicon dumping by China have been encouraged and encouraged, and the demand for polysilicon under the stimulation of the construction of photovoltaic power plants has been driven. After the Spring Festival, the spot price of domestic solar grade polysilicon continues to rise strongly before the holiday.

According to data learned on February 9, the spot price of solar grade polysilicon has climbed rapidly from 150,000 yuan/ton in January to a recent high of 160,000 yuan/ton (calculated at February exchange rate of approximately US$26.384). / kg), a small number of manufacturers even face the dilemma of silicon shortage and so on, but unfortunately raise the price to 165,000 yuan / ton.

At the same time, the tightness of polysilicon is also being continuously fermented in the capital market. Taking the polysilicon wind vane, GCL-Poly, as an example, its share price has exceeded 10% in the two trading days from February 6 to February 7. The cumulative increase.

However, it is worth noting that after the baptism of the “roller coaster” fluctuation of polysilicon prices, the domestic polysilicon industry, especially the first-line polysilicon enterprises, has already had considerable sense of industrial responsibility. They are not only eager for the immediate benefits brought by “high polysilicon prices”. More attempts to reduce production costs through technological innovation, and seek to work together with downstream to promote PV parity online and make big cakes.

Based on this, the industry judged that although the short-term polysilicon price will remain at the high level of 160,000 yuan / ton, even with the price commitment of China-Europe polysilicon trade, and overseas imports of polysilicon tax evasion has no door, a slight upward breakthrough. However, in the medium and long term, polysilicon prices have risen weakly and tend to be stable. In particular, due to the expected impact of the mass production of silane fluidized bed granular silicon in the second half of 2014, the production cost of polysilicon will drop significantly (the cost will be 40% lower than the most advanced modified Siemens technology), and the price of polysilicon will enter the downward channel. Promote photovoltaics to achieve parity online as soon as possible.

Central Europe or achieve polysilicon price commitment

On the eve of the Spring Festival, the Ministry of Commerce first announced on January 20th the final result of China's anti-dumping investigation on imports of solar-grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea, and on January 24, announced the preliminary results of the anti-dumping investigation on imported solar-grade polysilicon for the European Union. It is ruled that the import of solar grade polysilicon originating in the EU is dumped, the polysilicon industry in China is subject to substantial damage, and there is a causal relationship between dumping and damage.

In fact, in the EU's exports of polysilicon to China, dumping and subsidies not only exist, but also very serious, according to informed sources, "in the preliminary ruling, the EU's largest polysilicon producer - the German Wacker company's ruling anti-dumping The tax rate is 21.8% and the countervailing duty rate is 10.7%, which amounts to 32.5%."

However, in response to the anti-dumping case against China-EU polysilicon, the Ministry of Commerce announced that, considering the special market situation in this case, the investigation authority decided not to implement temporary anti-dumping measures after the preliminary ruling. In this regard, the above-mentioned insider introduced, "In view of the fact that the previous PV dispute in Central Europe ended with a price commitment, the case may be 'reconciled' in the future, that is, China will reach a price commitment with polysilicon on the polysilicon."

The industry commented that China and the EU reached a "price commitment" to limit the quantity and price of polysilicon imports, which is a reciprocal attitude given by China in response to the previous German and EU negotiations on the Sino-European PV dispute. It will "moderately" safeguard the interests of the domestic polysilicon industry and achieve the effect of trade relief.

Polysilicon prices are short-term bullish

In addition, after the “double-reverse” investigation of polysilicon and the release of the preliminary and final ruling results, overseas polysilicon enterprises are taking legal measures to effectively circumvent relevant punitive tariffs.

According to the survey data provided by the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, before the “double-reverse” investigation, China imported 50% of the total import volume by processing trade, but after the investigation was initiated, foreign polysilicon products began to grow. The scale entered the Chinese market by means of processing trade, so that in August and September of 2013, the proportion of imported polysilicon in China's processing trade was close to 80% of the total import volume.

What contributed to the surge in imports of polysilicon in processing trade? The reason is simple. Importing in this way can circumvent punitive tariffs. It is understood that the processing trade is a special trade mode adopted by China in the early stage of reform and opening up to promote the development of export-oriented economy and to promote the export of Chinese labor. According to the regulations, no import duties are imposed on import and export of processing trade.

It is understood that this phenomenon is getting worse and stronger. It has been alert to the relevant departments to consider the inclusion of solar-grade polysilicon in the catalogue of prohibited trade in processing trade, and the results of trade protection rights will be consolidated.

It is precisely under the combined effect of this expectation that China and the United States polysilicon "double anti-" will reach a price commitment, and China's large-scale start of the photovoltaic application market, the continued rise in polysilicon prices has been supported.

However, the global polysilicon market, which tends to be oligopolistic, has achieved economies of scale and drastically reduced the cost of polysilicon production. In particular, the birth of new technologies will effectively stabilize the rapid rise in polysilicon prices.

Taking GCL-Poly as an example, the company not only accounts for 25% of the global polysilicon market, 30% of the global wafer market, but also has the world's largest capacity – 65,000 tons of polysilicon per year and 10 GW of silicon wafers. In addition, its higher quality silane fluidized bed granular silicon will be mass-produced in the second half of 2014 (10,000 tons), when the total cost of granular silicon will be less than 10 US dollars / kg, compared with the most advanced modified Siemens technology Decreased by 40%.

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