The Chinese economy is "first" is very dangerous

At the moment, the global economic crisis is unresolved and there is even the possibility of further intensification. Like most countries in the world, China is struggling with the economic recession. However, at this critical moment, the Western world has sent us the most needed optimism and confidence – China may first replace the United States in 2016, the new term of US President Barack Obama, becoming the world’s largest economy. . The joy of charity in the snow was delivered by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on November 10th, Beijing time. On the same day, the organization released a report titled “Outlook 2060: Global Vision for Long-Term Growth”. It is believed that China’s GDP exceeds the United States by four years, and it takes only one year to exceed the total of the euro zone. This means that by then China will truly become the world's economic leader and become the driving force that drives the global economy forward. Perhaps stimulated by this news, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar broke the 6.30 mark. On November 12, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was: US$1 to RMB6.2920, 1 Euro to RMB8.0044, and 100 yen to RMB7.9151. It is undeniable that the good news of the OECD is so good. The excitement brought pride as a Chinese, but after a short period of happiness, the author has more anxiety. Will the Chinese economy really enter the ranks of the world's bosses? Or has the world changed, and the world is ready to welcome the "big boss" China? If not, what is the logic behind the report? What kind of conspiracy exists? Objective analysis, the OECD analysis of China can be said to be a big flicker. Last year, China’s GDP was 47.15 trillion yuan, or about 7.3 trillion US dollars, while the US’s GDP was as high as 15.09 trillion US dollars. China’s economic aggregate is about 40% of the United States. If you look at per capita income, then the Chinese and American economies. Even worse, at present, China's per capita income level is 16.6% of the United States, and the report said that this number will increase to 60% in 50 years. Although the relevant person from the National Development and Reform Commission recently said that the growth rate of China's economy is expected to reach 7.5% this year, which is much faster than the growth rate of 23% in the US economy, the deadly camel is bigger than Ma, leading the global economy and owning in the United States. In the context of global currency distribution rights, the Chinese economy wants to surpass the United States in four years, which is an idiotic dream. Even if China achieves the doubling of per capita income of urban and rural residents by 2020 and achieves the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way, China's total economic output is far less than that of the United States, and it is far from the world. The gap between the Chinese and American economies is so clear and clear, so why should the OECD still advocate it? As the saying goes, no benefit can not afford to be early. Behind the OECD's so charming China, in addition to explaining the sorrow of the economic forecasting world, perhaps it has an ulterior side. On November 12th, the result of the RMB-denominated dollar price breaking through the 6.30 mark should be the most gratifying scenario for the United States and other Western countries. In recent years, the United States has been forcing the appreciation of the renminbi, but the effect is not good. If the Chinese economy is “first”, then it will find the perfect reason for the renminbi to continue its unilateral appreciation. This is undoubtedly a fatal blow to the Chinese economy. Since China's dependence on foreign trade is as high as 25% or more, every point of appreciation of the renminbi will seriously affect China's exports, which in turn will affect the healthy development of the national economy. In addition to the appreciation of the renminbi, the "global first" Chinese economy will also face the growth of Western politicians' hostility towards China. In recent years, due to China's growing national strength, China's threat theory has never stopped, and even has been pushed by. This year's US election clearly reflects this: whether it is the winner Obama or the loser Romney, they are Attacking China and suppressing China are seen as strategies for obtaining votes. In order to achieve this goal, they continue to create friction. Huawei, ZTE, Sany Heavy Industry and many Chinese PV companies have been discriminated against and attacked. Now, even Sinopec’s acquisition of Canada’s Nixon Energy Company is in the hands of Americans. Recently, Tian Lipu, director of the State Intellectual Property Office, said that China is one of the countries that pays the most copyright fees, trademark royalties and franchise fees in the world. Foreign companies have obtained high added value through the processing trade of OEM in China. China's intellectual property protection work has brought tangible benefits to all countries. But this does not seem to change the status quo of discrimination against Chinese companies. Recently, in addition to the United States, the European Union is also very "calling" to the Chinese PV industry. If nothing else, its measures to follow the US footsteps to sanction China's PV industry will come soon. At the same time, the EU is taking responsibility for carbon emissions. It will also hang around China, and on the issue of IMF capital increase, Western countries will continue to advocate China as a big head. For the "world first", we must remain clear-headed. It should be said that after more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economic development has achieved remarkable achievements, but we must see a series of problems such as regional differences, structural imbalances, uneven distribution, and disparity between the rich and the poor in China's economy. Still to be resolved. Only by realizing the above-mentioned goals, the people are happy, the country is rich and strong, and the world’s number one at that time is worthy of celebration. It is worth remembering that it is worthy of pride. It is the real moment of happiness.

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