It is undeniable that competition in the first-line market of the furniture industry is 'increasingly difficult'. What about second- and third-tier cities?
Niu Dao asserted that the growth of property market transactions in 2010 was a bubble growth, especially in the first-tier cities. Therefore, in order to survive, developers will mostly turn to second- and third-tier cities.
Gong Fangxiong, vice chairman of JP Morgan China Investment Bank, said that after more than 10 years of development, the Chinese real estate market has gradually entered a relatively mature stage, and the real estate markets in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are increasingly approaching saturation. Second- and third-tier cities are facing rapid urbanization and industrialization, becoming a new growth point in the real estate market.
Taking Evergrande Real Estate as an example, sales in the first 11 months of 2010 were 47.72 billion yuan, an increase of 81.7% year-on-year, and sales area was 7.563 million square meters, an increase of 51.8% year-on-year. Evergrande is already the largest developer in China ’s capital cities, following 2004 After fully entering the second-tier cities in 2010, it entered the third-tier cities on a large scale in March 2010. Currently, there are 56 projects on sale, of which 4 have been opened in the third-tier market of non-provincial capital cities, and the contribution rate of third-tier cities has gradually increased.
According to the analysis of Li Wenjiang, Hefu Brilliant, in the first three quarters of 2010, 36% of the new projects of the top ten brand developers were located in second-tier cities, and only 9% were located in first-tier cities. Most of the ten cities with the largest new land reserves by housing companies are non-regulated key areas. Housing companies avoid cities with high policy risks, and the trend of expanding into second- and third-tier cities is intensifying.
Centaline real estate researchers analyzed that the release of long-term cumulative effects in second- and third-tier cities, including economic development, urbanization, infrastructure construction, and residents' purchasing power, have driven the local into a stage of rapid development.
In recent years, the economic growth and urbanization of second- and third-tier cities have been progressing rapidly, and real estate development investment and housing demand have been very hot. As the increase in house prices is not very significant, the impact of regulation in second- and third-tier cities is relatively limited. In the process of urbanization in China, second- and third-tier cities undoubtedly play an important role. On the one hand, these cities should melt the business opportunities of regional central cities and introduce mature real estate development concepts and business models; on the other hand, they must penetrate and promote the construction of small towns downstream, taking into account the balance of interests between urban development and land use. .
At present, the second and third tier cities are facing rapid urbanization and industrialization, becoming the new growth point of China's real estate market. According to statistics, China's urbanization rate was 46% in 2009, and it is increasing at a rate of 1% to 1.5% every year. About 20 million rural residents and farmers become urban residents every year, which is equivalent to building a big city like Shanghai every year. To absorb these urbanized people.
Furniture 's "tentacles"
As early as 2009, Ma Yuli, general manager of Baoshan Haojia International Furniture Plaza, said that the economically underdeveloped second-tier cities and third-tier cities will be the "new force" for the growth of the furniture market in the next five years.
Che Jianxin, chairman of Red Star Macalline, said on the forum of "New Power to Start the Era of Great Change": "Will 2011 increase compared with 2010? I think it will definitely increase by at least 5-10%. But there are also structures Sexual adjustments, such as household appliances, may increase the market volume in small cities in the third tier, because housing prices are still relatively low, people are not constrained by the purchase order, and the next step in the third-tier market is a very large increase. , Foreign countries have been eyeing China ’s tertiary market, that is, small cities, cities with populations of about 400,000 to 500,000, this increase is relatively large, especially in 2011 the increase will reach 20%, because small cities across the country More, the amount of furniture in China will also increase, high-end furniture will not necessarily increase, but it can not be reduced much, so I judge this in 2011. "
Xu Jinghong, general manager of Xiyingmen Building Materials Furniture Plaza Furniture Management Center, believes that the market potential that can be tapped in second- and third-tier cities is relatively large. "Xiyingmen Building Materials Furniture Plaza Yiyang Store" is a promising action for second- and third-tier cities.
Shilihua, general manager of marketing at Opelis, also believes that the second- and third-tier cities are the "relay baton" for the growth of the furniture market. From the perspective of market sales, the profits of dealers in first-tier cities are declining. Previously, it was normal for dealers to double the purchase price to sell products. . However, it is now difficult to afford this price. Although the secondary and tertiary markets rarely sell doubled products, they can maintain a gross profit of around 80%. This price is comparable to some products in the first-tier market. However, because the rent of the second and third tier sites is cheap, the advantage is more obvious. In the future, the secondary and tertiary markets will continue to grow.
The accelerated pace of real estate development in second and third tier cities will inevitably drive the development of the furniture industry.
In 2011, real estate in first-tier cities was not optimistic. Second- and third-tier cities were a new round of hotspots, especially the emphasis of the 12th Five-Year Plan on people's livelihood. To a certain extent, economic development also attached importance to second- and third-tier cities. As far as the furniture market is concerned, it can be described as a desperate situation.
The "profitable" of the second and third tier cities may become the "life-saving straw" of the furniture industry in 2011.
However, experts pointed out that the second and third tier cities are supported by national regional development policies and are also regional central cities, but this has not changed the essence of these cities' inward-oriented economy. The main support for the final housing demand is still local residents, and some second and third tier cities China ’s economy lacks sufficiently competitive industrial support, and the per capita income level of residents is relatively low. The rise in land prices and house prices may exceed the actual purchasing power of rigid housing demand. In this case, if a large amount of investment development and house purchase funds flow in, an investment bubble will eventually form. Therefore, when grasping the life-saving straw of the second- and third-tier cities, we must be soberly aware that: the purchasing needs and purchasing power of residents in the second- and third-tier cities, and the products of enterprises entering the second- and third-tier cities must be "made to measure", otherwise the "life-saving straw" Will not bear the weight of the market!
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