In recent days, industry insiders have reported that if domestic crude oil prices continue to climb during the Chinese New Year holiday period, it is likely that domestic refined oil prices will be adjusted upward once the holiday window opens. Despite a slight correction in international oil prices on February 4th, market analysts believe the overall upward trend remains intact and expect a renewed surge following the short-term pullback.
According to Li Qian, an analyst from Zhuo Chuang, key factors influencing oil price trends include geological events, political developments, and economic data. Currently, the global crude oil market is in its traditional peak season, with favorable conditions outweighing risks. In early January, the expansion of the U.S. pipeline system and Saudi Arabia’s production cuts helped support oil prices. Later, regional tensions in the Middle East fueled market concerns and further pushed prices higher. At the end of January, the delay in resolving the U.S. debt ceiling issue eased fears of a financial crisis, while ongoing monetary easing and improved economic data from major economies continued to drive up international oil prices.
"In the context of sustained economic recovery, increased liquidity, and rising risk appetite, these factors are reinforcing the upward momentum of crude oil prices," Li Qian noted. While the market is expected to see fluctuations with an overall upward trend, the pressure from global oil oversupply may create some resistance. Breaking through the $100 per barrel level would require strong supportive factors.
Domestic oil price increases are anticipated to be significant. According to monitoring data from the Business Society, as of February 4th, the rate of change for crude oil in the three regions reached 1.99%. This positive shift has already started influencing market sentiment.
Additionally, hazy weather conditions have led Sinopec to announce that by the end of this year, 12 of its subsidiary companies will complete equipment upgrades and begin operations. Starting next year, China will fully implement the four-standard oil product supply. This "oil product door" initiative has raised consumer concerns about potential cost increases, which could lead to higher oil prices. Li Hong pointed out that in the current environment of rising crude oil prices, this policy could further strengthen expectations of domestic price hikes.
Currently, most major oil sales companies remain optimistic about the market. Some have begun tentatively raising diesel prices by around 50 yuan per ton. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, industrial and mining companies, infrastructure projects, and logistics sectors are suspending operations, leading to reduced demand for diesel. Gasoline consumption has remained relatively stable ahead of the holiday. In most parts of China, both gasoline and diesel prices have remained steady, with little noticeable trading activity. Traders are still waiting for more clarity before making decisions.
Under the current "Administrative Measures on Oil Price (Trial)," the price adjustment for refined oil products can occur within 22 working days if the rate of change reaches 4%. Li Hong believes that if crude oil prices and the rate of change continue to rise in the coming days, the pressure on refined oil prices will increase. He predicts that the fastest possible price increase after the Lantern Festival could mark the first rise in 2013, potentially reaching around 300 yuan per ton. If the rate of change exceeds 4%, the government might consider postponing the first price adjustment of 2013 during the Spring Festival holiday to ensure sufficient fuel supply.
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