Just after the Spring Festival, with the spot price of iron ore continuously raised by the port, the expectation of the price increase in the second quarter is gradually strong. "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from the insiders of large domestic steel mills on the 15th that BHP Billiton, one of the three major mines, recently issued the latest offer of iron ore to the steel mill, rising from US$155/ton to US$168 in January. / ton (FOB). If the average sea freight rate from Australia to China is $7/ton, the ore price will reach $175/ton. Xu Xiangchun, director of information for my steel network, said that it is worth noting that the high-priced ore in the second quarter will gradually be reflected in the cost of steel. If the downstream demand is not as good as expected, it means that the steel price lacks room for growth, and the cost pressure of the steel mill is very large. . “Steel mills are free to choose a month or quarter to lock in at this price.†The steel mills told reporters, but because of the lack of accurate judgment standards for the later market, the choice of steel mills is now more cautious. The reporter learned that the average price of the British "Metal Guide" in January was 177 US dollars / ton (CIF), the average price of the Platts index was 181 US dollars / ton (CIF), you can see that BHP Billiton's bid is basically in accordance with This information is used to determine the price. It is understood that the second quarter quotations of Vale and Rio Tinto will not be known until March of this year. By convention, the second quarter quotation will be determined by the average price of the index from December last year to February this year. According to the "My Steel" network, the average price of the Platts price index from December to the current is 173 to 178 US dollars / ton (CIF), and the first quarter of 148 US dollars / ton (CIF price) Compared with, it is nearly 30 US dollars higher, which means that the second quarter quotation will increase sharply. The person told the reporter that due to the consideration of cost control, the steel mill did not purchase the spot mine imported from the market in the first quarter, mainly based on the agreement mine, supplementing some of its own mines and domestic mines. Due to the current artificial speculation of iron ore, the possibility of price fluctuations in the later period is intensified. In order to prevent risks, steel mills will “walk on two legs†in the second quarter, part of which locks the agreement mine and another part from the market. It is understood that since the end of last year, traders have hoarded ore in large numbers under strong bullish expectations. According to the statistics released by the General Administration of Customs, in January 2011, China imported 68.97 million tons of iron ore, a year-on-year increase of 47.94%, an increase of 18% from the previous month, a record high. In addition, driven by market expectations, the spot price of port iron ore has hit record highs since the fourth quarter of last year, and the price of 63.5% grade Indian powder ore is 193 to 195 US dollars per dry ton. In order to transfer the pressure brought by rising costs, steel mills began to adjust their prices after the year. According to the price adjustment document issued by WISCO ( 4.53 , 0.00 , 0.00% ) on the 14th, the main varieties of WISCO are raised by 200-400 yuan/ton. Among them, wire rod is 200 to 330 yuan/ton, hot rolling is 200 to 400 yuan/ton, cold rolling is 100 to 300 yuan/ton, and galvanizing is 200 to 350 yuan/ton. The market expects that Baosteel will rise by about 300 yuan / ton. A steel mill source said that the downstream industry still has a certain ability to digest the rise in steel prices, but it is difficult to say how long this digestive capacity will last. It may not be until the end of March. Xu Xiangchun said that from the current situation, on the one hand, due to the current low-cost iron ore purchase by steel mills, the cost pressure has not yet been reflected; on the other hand, it is currently the downstream industry to replenish stocks and full-scale horsepower. During the production period, demand is relatively strong. With the current steel price rising, steel mills still have some surplus. "How long it will take for such a situation to remain to be seen remains." Xu Xiangchun pointed out that it is worth noting that with the arrival of the second quarter, high-priced ore will gradually be reflected in steel costs. If downstream demand is not as good as expected, it means With the lack of room for steel prices to rise, the cost pressure on steel mills is very large and even faces losses. Xu Xiangchun believes that the price of iron ore has been artificially high, and it is currently at the highest level in history. Under the background of the reversal of the international supply and demand pattern of ore, the possibility that the price of minerals will greatly exceed the price of steel is lower. According to his judgment, iron ore is likely to fall back to $150 during the year.
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