Twelve-five domestic automakers target 40 million vehicles with excessive capacity overcapacity

2011 is the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". Judging from the sales targets of major auto companies, each car company is full of ambitions for the next five-year plan. According to incomplete statistics, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the total target output of major domestic automakers has easily exceeded 40 million, which is higher than the 31.24 million vehicles mentioned by Chen Bin, Director of the Industry Coordination Department of the National Development and Reform Commission in September last year. At that time, Chen Bin proposed that the main 30 automobile companies (groups) in China planned to have a capacity of 31.24 million at the end of 2015, which is far greater than the market demand. Compared with the warning issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, many people in the industry do not agree with the statement of “overcapacity”. Especially from last year's situation, most car companies are in a state of severe capacity shortage, and many models are out of stock. “Capacity is not the focus, and supply is in short supply. The oversupply is not the main contradiction. Supply shortage will become the main contradiction.” Zhang Xiaoyu, vice president of China Machinery Industry Federation, believes that in the current fully competitive market, the company’s expansion capacity is more In their own needs, they will not blindly invest. Is it blindly optimistic or is it a rigid market demand? For the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” of the newly started car, how to make the car and society develop more harmoniously is a more important issue compared with the growth of production and sales, because even if consumer demand can digest so much capacity, However, the annual production and sales volume of more than 40 million vehicles also seriously exceeds the current Chinese society's ability to withstand. Judging from the car purchase orders issued by Beijing and Guangzhou, the first-tier cities with the strongest spending power have been basically saturated, and the development of cars to second- and third-tier cities is the trend of the times. Under this circumstance, how to realize the transformation from quantity to quality, from big to strong, and from scale to efficiency is the most important issue that China's auto industry must face next. In 2010, Beijing Hyundai, which has relatively abundant production capacity, became a big winner, with annual sales reaching 700,000 units. Some companies that were estimated to be more conservative at the beginning of last year can only watch people's sales rise and rush. Because of this, most manufacturers announced expansion plans last year, and some plans even can be described as "Great Leap Forward." Judging from the public data, the target of automakers this year is relatively conservative, with most of the increase of about 10%. Among them, Shanghai GM's production and sales target for this year is 1.15 million, compared with 1.05 million last year, an increase of less than 10%; Beijing Hyundai's sales target of rapid growth last year was 720,000, compared with 700,000 last year. There are also a few conservative; Dongfeng Honda, the sales volume of 280,000 vehicles is only less than 8% compared with last year; FAW Toyota's target sales this year is 550,000 vehicles, an increase of 10%; Dongfeng Nissan's sales target of 772,000 vehicles this year, and Compared with last year's 660,000 vehicles, the increase was 15%. According to statistics, the new factories planned by major manufacturers will not be put into production until 2012. By then, the production capacity will be greatly expanded. For major auto companies, losing market share due to insufficient capacity is an unspeakable pain. Therefore, in the past two years when the auto market has been booming, building new factories and expanding production capacity have become the top priority for many car companies. In particular, after the national “four big four small” plan was put forward in early 2009, the mainstream automobile enterprise groups all “grinded the knife and hooves” and strived to expand for the first place in the Chinese automobile industry. In the “12th Five-Year Plan” of SAIC, the development goal is to produce 6 million vehicles per year, 40% of the total number of independent brands and localized R&D vehicles, to form a system of independent innovation and independent product development capabilities. Domestic parts and components supporting system, the domestic market share of new energy vehicles reaches 20%; in the “12th Five-Year Plan” of FAW Group, the annual production and sales volume will reach 5 million units, and the sales will exceed 600 billion yuan, striving to achieve domestic occupation. The strategic goal of 20% share of the automobile market, in which the self-owned brand will reach 2 million annual production and sales; Changan Group’s “12th Five-Year” target will also exceed 5 million units; BAIC’s target is 3.5 million units, including its own brand. The production capacity of passenger cars has reached 700,000. Compared with these large groups, independent brands such as Geely, Chery and BYD are also ambitious. The 12th Five-Year Plan has reached 2 million vehicles. In order to achieve such a goal, the capacity expansion plan of independent brand car companies is even more rapid. In the next five years, BYD will add 800,000 units of production capacity, and Geely's new capacity will be more than 1 million units. Planning of the new base of the Great Wall Tianjin The production capacity has also reached 500,000 units... According to incomplete statistics, by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, only 38 million vehicles have been collected from the information of the auto group that has been counted, plus the enterprises that are not counted, the overall The planned production capacity will be more than 40 million vehicles, far exceeding the capacity. “In 2011, the growth rate of automobile production and sales is between 10% and 15%. There will be no overcapacity in China’s auto industry this year.” Dong Yang, secretary-general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that from the last year, the Chinese auto market has emerged. The situation is insufficient capacity. There is no large-scale wave of price cuts in the auto market, and many auto companies work overtime to increase production. In the case of insufficient production capacity, many car companies will increase capacity building. After the increase in production capacity, the market will automatically adjust to enable car companies to slowly reduce production capacity. This is a market adjustment process. "In the market economy, there must be a certain surplus of production capacity, 10% to 15% surplus. If an industry grows 20% annually, it should add another 20%. In the market with an average annual growth rate of 20%, the production capacity has a surplus of 30%. It is normal. History has proved that the national authorities are worried that the situation of overcapacity in automobiles will not appear.” Compared with Dong Yang’s optimism, in the view of the former Minister of Machinery Industry, He Guangyuan, overcapacity has to be divided into two aspects. Brands that have a brand but lack of capacity should encourage their expansion; control the ineffective capacity; local governments are too optimistic about the auto industry, and attracting auto companies with low-cost land and capital policies but lacking planning should cause enough vigilance . “My suggestion is to have a strict approval process for new projects in the automotive industry, and not to build factories blindly.” Industry insiders worry that the serious consequences of overcapacity will affect the health of the overall market. Orderly development is a serious blow to independent brands. After the rapid production of capacity in 2012, the price war will be inevitable. "Governments and enterprises should focus on quality and quantity, and focus on industrial restructuring to achieve a transition from a big car country to a strong country."  

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