The “Twelfth Five-Year” automobile industry plans to produce more than 40 million vehicles

In 2010, the production and sales of 18 million vehicles allowed the Chinese automobile industry to stand at the threshold of “2.0 era” with an annual output of 20 million vehicles. The high oil prices, the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction, and the growing congestion of large and medium-sized cities have not been able to Delay the pace of capacity expansion of auto companies. According to statistics, the planned production capacity of major domestic auto companies during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period will exceed 40 million units, which will exceed the 31.24 million units previously estimated by Chen Bin, Director of the Industry Coordination Department of the National Development and Reform Commission. This also makes overcapacity become domestic again. There is no need to focus on the development of the automotive industry. Analysts pointed out that the NDRC and other relevant ministries and commissions issued early warnings and introduced strict measures to prevent overcapacity and car companies' "enclosure movement" measures did not prevent car companies from expanding their capacity under the interests of the interests, in the car industry's brutal competition environment and places. Under the guidance of the government's performance outlook, overcapacity will become a potential hidden danger for the sustainable and healthy development of the domestic auto industry. In addition, rising oil prices and environmental problems are inconsistent with the rapid growth of car ownership. New energy vehicles will see a major opportunity for rapid development during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The expansion of car companies is unstoppable. Due to the optimistic estimation of the domestic auto market and the cruel market competition pressure, the acceleration of capacity expansion has become the consensus of major auto companies in China. In the past two years, domestic mainstream passenger car companies such as Dongfeng Nissan, Beijing Benz, BMW Brilliance, FAW Toyota, Beijing Hyundai, FAW Volkswagen, and FAW Car, including commercial vehicles such as Yutong Bus, have announced plans to invest or have already invested in new plants. Mitigating the negative impact of insufficient production capacity on future market competition. According to incomplete statistics, the major domestic enterprises to the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" plan, the overall planned production capacity will be more than 40 million vehicles, far exceeding Chen Bin's forecast of 31.24 million vehicles, has already sounded the alarm of domestic auto overcapacity. Among them, at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, SAIC Group's development goal is to produce and sell 6 million vehicles per year; FAW Group aims to produce 5 million vehicles per year; Changan Group will also target more than 5 million vehicles; BAIC Group's target It is 3.5 million vehicles; Geely, Chery, BYD, Great Wall and other independent brands are also planning 2 million vehicles. The enthusiasm of auto companies for capacity expansion has also caused the relevant ministries to issue warnings of overcapacity. In the interview with the China Economic Times reporter, the relevant person in charge of the automobile company believed that the NDRC only disclosed the current overcapacity of the entire industry and revealed the policy orientation of regulating production capacity, but it is not necessarily implemented immediately. And understanding the market to develop and adjust strategies to determine long-term development strategies. Analysts pointed out that the move of car companies to expand production capacity can not be generalized, some companies are indeed to compensate for the adverse effects of insufficient capacity, such as the industry's lowest FAW-Volkswagen expansion capacity is fully in line with the needs of enterprises, regardless of their own needs, blindly expand capacity or It is really necessary to pay attention to and combat the use of local government preferential policies to encircle the money. The National Development and Reform Commission strictly guards against overcapacity. In 2015, while the planned production capacity of domestic auto companies was 31.24 million units, Chen Bin has already warned of signs of overcapacity in the domestic auto industry. "The reason for the overcapacity may be that the market signal is out of order. It is difficult for enterprises to accurately predict market demand, leading to blind investment behavior. Severe overcapacity will lead to vicious competition in the market, the decline in economic efficiency of enterprises, and the shortage of factory starts. It will seriously hinder the healthy and sustainable development of the automobile industry and even adversely affect the macroeconomic development." Chen Bin said. The National Development and Reform Commission has also issued a policy to impose strict restrictions on the expansion of “unusual demand” for car companies. Chen Jianguo, deputy director of the Industry Coordination Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, previously stated that although the NDRC did not specifically introduce policies to limit the capacity expansion of auto companies, it issued a clear warning signal. Its fundamental purpose is to enhance industry investment and decision-making through merger and reorganization policies. Concentration, to prevent the real overcapacity; on the other hand, it is necessary to strictly attack the "enclosure movement" of auto companies to earn land prices through the construction of branch factories in different places to ensure the healthy development of the domestic auto industry. “The current policy is to build a separate legal entity or a new branch factory. The concept of “building a new one” is to combine a new independent legal entity or a new branch factory with a merger and reorganization, that is, to “kill” a complete vehicle. Production enterprises, this is a very strict measure," Chen Jianguo said. "The local government welcomes enterprises to set up factories and provide convenient facilities from the perspective of developing local economy. One of the facilities is to help the automobile factory to 'kill' a manufacturing plant. Moreover, the construction of factories and vehicles in different places must reach the original factory capacity utilization rate exceeds certain standards, which also inhibits the excessive expansion of vehicle production capacity to a certain extent. But there are also people in the industry who hold different views on whether the production capacity is excessive. Xu Changming, director of the Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center, said in an interview with the China Economic Times that despite the structural slowdown in the auto industry, there is no need to worry too much about overcapacity. “The domestic automobile market is still in a stage of rapid development. Even without any policy stimulus, the whole industry should be able to maintain a growth rate of around 15%. The current capacity utilization rate is higher than 75%. Even if adjustments occur, it will be one to two years. Time to digest quickly." Xu Changming said. New energy vehicles or development opportunities On February 20, the National Development and Reform Commission again raised the price of refined oil. The price of gasoline in Beijing area increased from 7.17 yuan to 7.45 yuan per liter, a record high. Increasing oil price hikes, severe traffic congestion, and a series of environmental and energy-saving emission reduction problems have made it necessary to pay attention to the importance of structural adjustment of domestic auto products, and the development of new energy vehicles will be welcomed. A rare opportunity for development. On the one hand, the domestic automobile industry authorities represented by the National Development and Reform Commission issued warnings about overcapacity in automobiles. On the other hand, the state's support for the development of new energy vehicles is gradually increasing. According to the national new energy automobile industry plan, after 2010, the domestic new energy vehicle industrialization and market scale will reach the world's first, and the number of possessions will reach 5 million, which means that new energy vehicles are expected to reach a large scale within 5-10 years. The standard of industrialization will also allow some car companies with relatively excess capacity to find exports that absorb excess capacity. Chen Jianguo said that the current policy may not be fully applicable to the new energy vehicle industry in the future, because the new energy vehicle has changed the original traditional energy engine drive mode, just cutting out the core technology that most needs the capital investment. Whether the car is also in line with the development rules of traditional energy vehicles is still difficult to say, this is not the government can stipulate," Chen Jianguo said. "The development of new energy vehicles still has a long way to go."

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