The Durban Conference ended in the form of a marathon and achieved some "not perfect" results. All this should be expected. However, the Durban Conference has a very brief decision that should not be ignored.
The Durban Conference decided to establish an “Ad Hoc Working Group for the Durban Strengthening Action Platform†and will work in the first half of 2012, and no later than 2015, develop a legal tool applicable to all Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Or legal results, reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
This means that a new climate negotiation framework is starting. And its emergence will be the end of the "Kyoto Protocol." More specifically, the global climate negotiations have been insisting for many years, especially the "dual track" negotiations that China and other developing countries have always insisted on.
Undertaking the “common but differentiated†emission reduction obligation is the core principle of the “dual track†negotiation. But all along, developed countries that are supposed to shoulder more obligations in responding to climate change are constantly trying to pull the world into a basket.
The above-mentioned decision of the Durban Conference actually used a new agreement to include both developed and developing countries in a negotiation framework. Developing countries are likely to accept mandatory, quantitative, legally binding emission reduction obligations in subsequent negotiations.
The Kyoto Protocol, which has existed for 15 years, has retained its second commitment period at Durban and has been implemented since 2013. However, it is difficult to conceal that the Kyoto Protocol has reached an awkward position.
As Japan, the birthplace of the "Kyoto Protocol," as early as last year's Cancun meeting, it will never submit any emission reduction targets in the second commitment period of the "Kyoto Protocol." Australia and Russia also clearly stated before the Durban meeting that they would not join the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Canada, which has been hard-lined during the meeting, officially announced the day after the Durban meeting and withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol. This would save Canada from the approximately 14 billion Canadian dollars (about 13.6 billion U.S. dollars) punishable under the Kyoto Protocol. In addition, the United States did not participate in the "Kyoto Protocol," and developing countries did not assume emission reduction obligations in accordance with regulations. The "Kyoto Protocol" is becoming more and more limited.
In fact, the Copenhagen conference two years ago was already discussing the follow-up plan for the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. At that time, the meeting emphasized that a new global agreement must be formulated to include all countries and jointly face the issue of greenhouse gas emission reductions. Developed countries must undertake greater greenhouse gas emission reduction efforts. Developing countries are only taking action within their ability.
Since then, the "Kyoto Protocol" has shown a worrying fate.
China clearly proposed that it must have a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. However, as a large developing country, China has often become the target of "binding" by developed countries. The developed countries have made up their minds and want to accept a legally binding emission reduction agreement, provided that China also accepts strict emission reduction targets.
It can be said that the pressure China faces in climate negotiations is enormous. Because China is already the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in absolute terms. Next year, the first commitment period of the "Kyoto Protocol" will expire. If the second commitment period becomes useless, climate negotiations will become even more difficult.
From the perspective of benefiting China’s economic development and promoting the further reduction of emissions from developed countries, China must adhere to the “dual track system†of climate negotiations. But what if the "dual track system" becomes a "single track system" someday in the future?
China has realized that the high-energy-consuming economic development path that the developed countries have taken in the past is not feasible, and it is already taking a path of scientific development and low-carbon development.
Some experts have already suggested that if there is sufficient investment and proper policies, China's carbon emission levels may peak between 2030 and 2035, and then decrease dramatically after a steady development.
Therefore, if global emission reduction integration is implemented only after 2030 or 2035, China's "shock" will be greatly reduced. China’s earlier and faster transformation of its development approach not only conforms to China’s own interests but also to world interests. It not only gives China more room for climate negotiations but also gives China’s economic and social development time and opportunity.
The Durban Conference decided to establish an “Ad Hoc Working Group for the Durban Strengthening Action Platform†and will work in the first half of 2012, and no later than 2015, develop a legal tool applicable to all Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Or legal results, reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
This means that a new climate negotiation framework is starting. And its emergence will be the end of the "Kyoto Protocol." More specifically, the global climate negotiations have been insisting for many years, especially the "dual track" negotiations that China and other developing countries have always insisted on.
Undertaking the “common but differentiated†emission reduction obligation is the core principle of the “dual track†negotiation. But all along, developed countries that are supposed to shoulder more obligations in responding to climate change are constantly trying to pull the world into a basket.
The above-mentioned decision of the Durban Conference actually used a new agreement to include both developed and developing countries in a negotiation framework. Developing countries are likely to accept mandatory, quantitative, legally binding emission reduction obligations in subsequent negotiations.
The Kyoto Protocol, which has existed for 15 years, has retained its second commitment period at Durban and has been implemented since 2013. However, it is difficult to conceal that the Kyoto Protocol has reached an awkward position.
As Japan, the birthplace of the "Kyoto Protocol," as early as last year's Cancun meeting, it will never submit any emission reduction targets in the second commitment period of the "Kyoto Protocol." Australia and Russia also clearly stated before the Durban meeting that they would not join the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Canada, which has been hard-lined during the meeting, officially announced the day after the Durban meeting and withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol. This would save Canada from the approximately 14 billion Canadian dollars (about 13.6 billion U.S. dollars) punishable under the Kyoto Protocol. In addition, the United States did not participate in the "Kyoto Protocol," and developing countries did not assume emission reduction obligations in accordance with regulations. The "Kyoto Protocol" is becoming more and more limited.
In fact, the Copenhagen conference two years ago was already discussing the follow-up plan for the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. At that time, the meeting emphasized that a new global agreement must be formulated to include all countries and jointly face the issue of greenhouse gas emission reductions. Developed countries must undertake greater greenhouse gas emission reduction efforts. Developing countries are only taking action within their ability.
Since then, the "Kyoto Protocol" has shown a worrying fate.
China clearly proposed that it must have a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. However, as a large developing country, China has often become the target of "binding" by developed countries. The developed countries have made up their minds and want to accept a legally binding emission reduction agreement, provided that China also accepts strict emission reduction targets.
It can be said that the pressure China faces in climate negotiations is enormous. Because China is already the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in absolute terms. Next year, the first commitment period of the "Kyoto Protocol" will expire. If the second commitment period becomes useless, climate negotiations will become even more difficult.
From the perspective of benefiting China’s economic development and promoting the further reduction of emissions from developed countries, China must adhere to the “dual track system†of climate negotiations. But what if the "dual track system" becomes a "single track system" someday in the future?
China has realized that the high-energy-consuming economic development path that the developed countries have taken in the past is not feasible, and it is already taking a path of scientific development and low-carbon development.
Some experts have already suggested that if there is sufficient investment and proper policies, China's carbon emission levels may peak between 2030 and 2035, and then decrease dramatically after a steady development.
Therefore, if global emission reduction integration is implemented only after 2030 or 2035, China's "shock" will be greatly reduced. China’s earlier and faster transformation of its development approach not only conforms to China’s own interests but also to world interests. It not only gives China more room for climate negotiations but also gives China’s economic and social development time and opportunity.
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