China's second quarter GDP growth rate may fall again

Analysts said that the upcoming June export data may be weak, and even negative growth is not ruled out. Shen Danyang, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said recently that the growth of foreign trade in the past few months has benefited considerably from the foreign trade stabilization policy implemented since last year and the recovery of some foreign demand markets, but these favorable factors have basically been exhausted in May. According to a survey of more than 1,000 companies by the Ministry of Commerce, the appreciation of the renminbi and the sluggish external demand will have an adverse impact on exports in the coming months.

Judging from the credit data, due to the tight funds, many banks have begun to shrink credits, and it is expected to increase credit by 800 billion yuan in June. Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, believes that overall, the scale of new credit will not be large in June, about 700-800 billion yuan.

The June CPI data, which will be released on the 9th, is expected to remain low. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that food prices were generally stable in June, pork prices rebounded at a low level, vegetable prices fell, and hikes rose by 0.6 percentage points. It is estimated that the CPI in June will increase by about 2.6% year-on-year, a slight increase from last month. At present, the situation of weak economic recovery has not changed significantly. The pressure on the demand side of rising prices during the year is relatively small, and the price operation in the second half of the year will be generally stable.

The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the operation of the national economy in the first half of the year on the 15th. Analysts said that weak aggregate demand and continued destocking of enterprises will lead to continued economic growth in the second quarter. It is expected that the economic growth rate will fall to around 7.5% in the second quarter. The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was about 7.6%. “Affected by the decline in the industrial and foreign trade sectors, the economic growth rate will decrease in the second quarter.” Li Huiyong, chief macro economist of Shenyin Wanguo, said that the economic growth rate in the second quarter is expected to fall to 7.6%. The economic trend is still L-shaped bottom wave dynamic potential, and the new rising cycle may occur after three years.

Regarding the regulation policy, analysts believe that short-term stimulus policies are unlikely to be introduced, given the government's determination to increase the current economic growth rate tolerance and promote economic transformation. De-capacity and de-leverage will be the main line of economic development in the second half of the year. Future economic growth needs to promote structural reforms in the process of de-capacity, relying on reforms to release dividends to provide new impetus for economic development.