Under the background of active promotion of national policies, the core competitiveness of waste treatment companies will be reflected in several aspects such as technology, experience, cross-regional operating capabilities, and financing capabilities. Companies with a complete industry chain of waste incineration treatment have significant growth potential in the short-term and medium- and long-term, and have equipment manufacturing + BOT + financing capabilities business models, such as Sheng Yun shares, Sander environment.
Garbage generation industry ushered in a period of rapid development
Since 2012, the approval and implementation of waste incineration power generation projects have accelerated. According to incomplete statistics, nearly 40 projects have been signed since 2012, with a total investment of 17 billion yuan. From the perspective of regional distribution, the third-tier cities have become the main force for the new round of project construction. From another point of view, some environmental protection listed companies have also expanded their expansion in the waste power generation business. For example, Shengyun’s shares are acquired through the acquisition of Zhongke General’s shares to create a waste incineration whole industry chain; Yongqing Environmental Protection signed this year. The first project entered the waste incineration power generation field; the combustion control technology increased the control of the waste power generation project through the shareholding Z. There are indications that the waste incineration power generation industry is ushering in a period of rapid development.
The internal driving force of industry development
The waste power generation industry has ushered in the internal driving force of rapid development: the continuous increase in waste removal and transportation, and the insufficiency of existing treatment facilities; the increase in land costs and priority in the development of waste incineration; and the localization of equipment has drastically reduced the investment in waste incineration projects.
The rapid economic development continues to advance the process of urbanization. The increase in the urban population is accompanied by a simultaneous increase in the amount of waste generated. Because the construction of the garbage harmless treatment facilities in China is lagging behind, and the garbage removal and transportation are not perfect, the garbage disposal capacity needs to be improved. Further improve. In 2010, China's garbage disposal rate was 63.5%, including 77.9% of urban cities and 27.4% of county towns. From 2003 to 2011, China's garbage innoxious treatment capacity has been greatly improved from 21.9 thousand tons per day to The annual compound growth rate of 480,000 tons/day is 8%, far exceeding the average annual compound growth rate of 3%. However, the existing treatment facilities still can not meet the processing needs and the uneven distribution, resulting in insufficient supporting facilities for waste treatment facilities, especially in economically developed areas and densely populated areas. Some landfill sites have reached closure conditions in advance, and new treatment facilities have been affected. It is difficult to constrain the location of land resources.
Due to the lack of understanding of the harm caused by landfill resources occupied by landfills in China in the early years, the majority of China's domestic waste is still treated with landfill. The rapid expansion of domestic waste production and the limited land resources in China have determined that landfills cannot be used as a major waste disposal method for a long time, especially in the eastern coastal areas where land resources are tight and the economy is developed.
Landfill treatment has serious secondary pollution to the atmosphere, water and soil and has been abandoned by Western developed countries. In contrast, waste incineration treatment has the advantages of large treatment volume, good volume reduction, and complete decontamination. The heat generated by the waste incineration process is used to generate electricity and can also realize the energy of waste. Therefore, it is already common in developed countries in the world. A waste disposal method used.
Localization of equipment is also a major cause of the development of the waste power generation industry. The equipment investment of waste incineration power plants accounts for about 40-50% of the total, of which the grate furnace and incinerator of the core equipment have also experienced the stages of equipment introduction, technology introduction, digestion and absorption, and large-scale localization. Since 2009, domestic equipment has been rapidly used in the construction of domestic projects. The localization of equipment has enabled the project's equipment investment to save more than 30%, which has facilitated the development of the waste power generation industry.
The external driving force of the development of the industry
The external driving force to promote the development of the waste-to-energy industry: a clear industry development plan; a clear model of commercial profitability; and increased pressure on environmental protection.
In 2012, the two policies introduced by the state promoted the development of the waste incineration power generation industry. First, on March 28, 2012, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Perfecting the Policy of Waste Incineration Power Generation Price.†It stipulated clearly that: The waste incineration power generation implements the national uniform waste power generation benchmark price of 0.65 yuan/kWh, which is higher than the local thermal power benchmarking on-grid tariff. In part, the local provincial power grid bears 0.1 yuan per kilowatt-hour, and the rest is incorporated into the nation's additional renewable energy tariffs. The other policy is April 19, 2012. The General Office of the State Council issued the “12th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of Harmless Treatment Facilities for Urban Domestic Garbageâ€, which clearly stated that by 2015, the city’s urban garbage should be disposed of harmlessly. The rate reached more than 90%, and the county town reached more than 70%; the capacity of urban incineration facilities reached more than 35% of the total innocuous treatment capacity, and the eastern region reached more than 48%. The plan introduced the development goals of the industry, protected the future benefits of the project, and reflected that the country is actively promoting the development of the waste incineration power generation industry.
In addition, the new government’s emphasis on environmental protection and the enhancement of public awareness of environmental protection have also contributed to the confidence of local governments in developing waste generation. Various factors have made the bidding and bidding of garbage discovery projects apparently active since 2012.
Waste incineration has become widely used in developed countries
The concept of the treatment of urban living garbage in developed countries has undergone harmless sanitary landfill to reduce, and then to resource utilization. The same problem faced by the Z reduction stage is that as the city develops to a certain scale, the problem of garbage siege appears, and the government has introduced incentive measures to encourage the development of other non-landfill technologies such as incineration.
At present, waste incineration has become a widely used urban domestic waste treatment method in developed countries. For example, in Japan, more than 90% of wastes have been treated by incineration. The rate of waste incineration in Switzerland is as high as 80%, the United States is 40%, Germany and France account for about 40%, the United Kingdom accounts for 10%, and Canada accounts for 6%. Singapore has even reached At 100%, more than 90% of domestic waste in China’s Taiwan region has been burned.
In addition, the waste incineration and discharge standards are in line with international standards, which can fundamentally eliminate the concerns about the harm of flue gas emissions and will also reduce the obstacles in the implementation of the project.
Twelve-five waste power generation market size forecast
During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, China’s urban harmless treatment facilities increased from 614 to 1,076, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.87%; harmless treatment capacity increased from 236,300 tons/day to 387,600 tons/day, with an annual compound growth rate of 10.4. %. Among them, the proportion of landfill disposal is still over 77%, and the proportion of waste incineration capacity is increased from 12.9% to 21.9%. In 2011, the number of municipal solid waste incineration plants built in China was 109, and the average daily processing capacity of a single project. 863.4 tons.
According to the "12th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of Harmless Treatment Facilities for Urban Domestic Garbage," during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the national urban domestic waste treatment capacity will increase from 459,900 tons per day to 817,500 tons per day in 2015, an annual compound growth. The rate is 13.8%. The waste incineration capacity will increase from 89,600 tons/day to 307,200 tons/day, an increase of 3.4 times in scale, and a compound annual growth rate of 28%. If the new waste incineration plant is to be used at a single scale of 1,000 tons/day, During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, 217 new garbage incineration plants will be needed.
In terms of sub-regions, the scale of waste incineration in key provinces and cities will increase significantly. The top five regions with the highest growth rates are Chongqing, Hainan, Shanghai, Beijing and Guangxi. In 2015, the scale of planning and processing will be 6-9 times that of 2010.
Judging from the budgetary investment, the budget for the 12th Five-Year Living Garbage Disposal Facility is 263.6 billion yuan, of which 173 billion yuan is for harmless treatment facilities (including 4.55 billion yuan for the 11th-five-year construction investment). In the province's investment distribution, the construction of harmless treatment facilities in Guangdong, Shandong, and Beijing ranks in the top three, with amounts of 271.4, 198.8, and 14.66 billion yuan respectively.
As the incineration power plant below 150 tons/day is not economical, the new waste incineration power plant will be dominated by large-scale power plants. Assuming a unit cost of 400,000 yuan/ton, the new waste incineration capacity needs to invest 87 billion yuan.
Annual operating income by 2015 is expected to reach 18.5 billion yuan. At present, the standards for garbage subsidies for garbage-discovery projects across the country are not uniform. The subsidy costs in big cities are higher than those in small and medium-sized cities. The subsidy range per ton is roughly between 60 and 100 yuan. According to the subsidy price of 80 yuan/ton, we generated 182 yuan of waste-to-grid revenue and 70% of capacity utilization. The power plant operates for 330 days a year. In 2015, the planned annual scale of incineration is 18.5 billion yuan.
Key company recommendation
The following companies are currently engaged in waste-to-energy related businesses:
In order to actively promote the national policy, the core competitiveness of waste disposal companies will be reflected in several aspects such as technology, experience, cross-regional operating capabilities, and financing capabilities. We believe that companies with a complete industry chain of waste incineration treatment have significant growth potential in the short-term and medium-term and long-term. We recommend companies with equipment manufacturing + BOT+ financing capabilities, such as Shengyun Group and Sander Environment.
Shengyun Co., Ltd.: The company has obtained approval for the acquisition of Zhongke General Equity Solutions through the issuance of additional shares, and will build a full-scale industrial chain for waste incineration power generation. We believe that the company's joint efforts with China Keke Co., Ltd. will fully combine the advantages of the capital and technology, which will help the company expand its waste incineration power generation project in a wider range. The waste power generation projects currently underway between the company and China National General Corporation are abundant, and the successful implementation of existing projects can ensure the company's continued growth over the next three years.
Saunders Environment: The company has a clear competitive advantage in the solid waste treatment industry. In the area of ​​domestic waste treatment, the garbage pretreatment, incineration, composting and sanitary landfill are organically combined to form a complete set of domestic waste comprehensive treatment system solutions suitable for China's national conditions. . Since 2012, the company has signed a number of waste disposal projects. The amount of newly-signed projects exceeds 2 billion yuan, and the accumulated amount exceeds 4 billion yuan. The company will complete the allotment financing at the end of 2012 and will guarantee the construction fund requirements for the BOT project.
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