Polysilicon "anti-dumping" when countering EU means

The results of the preliminary ruling of the European and American polysilicon double-reverse preliminary issued by the Ministry of Commerce of China on July 4th have not been announced, which has caused the current Sino-European PV trade war to fall into a stalemate.

A “Research Procedure Reference Schedule” posted in the service hall next to the Communication Office of the East Gate of the Ministry of Commerce shows that on July 4th, the Ministry of Commerce issued the deadline for the “EU Solar Grade Polysilicon Anti-Dumping Preliminary Decision”.

However, on July 4th, there was no information on the polysilicon double-reverse on the website of the Ministry of Commerce.

An insider of the Ministry of Commerce explained in an interview that there was no reason for the announcement of the preliminary ruling on the same day: First, the negotiation of the China-European PV price commitment has not been fruitful, and the boots are more active later; second, Central Europe There are big accounts for cooperation, and small accounts are subject to big accounts.
This practice of the Ministry of Commerce caused dissatisfaction with domestic polysilicon enterprises on the same day. Lu Jinbiao, general manager of GCL-Poly, said: "Don't use polysilicon as a means of countering the EU. It can only be used as cannon fodder." The company currently accounts for more than 80% of China's polysilicon market.

It is now a difficult time for the Sino-European PV trade war. On July 1, the negotiations between Europe and China on the price commitment of photovoltaic products were unsuccessful, and the Chinese side rejected the price because of the high price. On the same day, China stated that it initiated an anti-dumping investigation on imported European wines. This move is considered to be a countermeasure against PV double-reverse.

"But after China played the wine card, the other side did not react, which is enough to confirm the childishness of the wine negotiations for the registration of the wine." Lu Jinbiao said.

The situation has also become increasingly unfavorable for Chinese PV companies. India also said on July 3 that it will conduct anti-dumping investigations on PV products exported from China, the United States and Taiwan.

A number of PV companies told reporters that domestic component manufacturers have stopped shipping to Europe, and will shift the market to emerging markets such as North America and Asia.

Completely stop supplying to Europe

“Several downstream enterprises have occupied the elevators on the 8th floor, and they have also sat in a conference room.” A senior executive of a domestic PV leading company recently told reporters. The "8th floor" he said is the office of the Bureau of Justice of the Ministry of Commerce. The reason for the downstream enterprises to consolidate the fairness is the anxiety of the EU to propose the lowest price for Chinese export components.

According to the German PV-Magazine report on July 1, the EU and China PV double-reverse negotiations or failed due to component price negotiations. The reason is that the lowest price proposed by the Brussels delegation (ie the EU delegation) is 0.65 euros per watt (equivalent to 0.85 US dollars / watt).
Unexpectedly, China rejected this price, and negotiators from Beijing said: “0.50 Euro/W is more acceptable.”

The above-mentioned senior officials told reporters that the Chinese negotiators are composed of representatives from the Ministry of Commerce and the Chamber of Commerce for Electrical and Mechanical Services. They represent Chinese companies in the negotiations.

"Most of the Ministry of Commerce is a small business. They are worried that after the price commitment is realized, the benefits will be given to large enterprises." The above-mentioned senior officials said.

What does the price of 0.65 Euro/W mean? A PV industry analyst told reporters that “meaning that Chinese companies will completely lose their competitiveness in the European market.”

The above analysts gave reporters a set of data: At present, the price of PV companies in China is about 4.3 yuan per watt, equivalent to 0.45 euros. The average price of Chinese companies exporting PV modules across Europe is also around 0.5 Euro/W (not counting 11.8% temporary penalty).

At the July 1 meeting, Beijing negotiators said that some German companies had sold at prices below €0.58/W in the EU. But the analysts said that the price is a very rare case, and most European companies' components are currently priced at 0.6-0.7 euros/watt.
“The price of 0.65 Euro/W is basically the same as the price of European components now, but at the same price, no European companies will abandon European brands and choose Chinese products. Chinese products have always relied on prices below European products by 20%. Win," said the analyst.

A senior executive of JA Solar also told reporters that in addition to local companies in Europe, South Korea and Malaysia components currently have a certain market in Europe, and their prices are lower than those of local European companies. Therefore, if the price commitment to China's PV products is realized, Korea And Malaysian components will be the biggest impact on Chinese products.

He also reminded that the overall increase in the price of crystalline silicon components may also give the film an opportunity. The film company Firstsolar's previous sales price in Europe was also around 0.55 euros/watt.

The European Commission announced on June 4 that the EU has imposed a temporary anti-dumping duty of 11.8% on solar panels and key components produced in China since June 6. If China and the EU fail to reach a settlement by August 6, the anti-dumping tax rate will rise to 47.6%.

Due to the above reasons, all domestic component companies have stopped shipping to Europe. "It usually takes one month to ship to Europe. Now the shipment will arrive after August 6. The tariff will probably reach 47.6%." The analyst explained to the reporter.

Currently, the two companies that ship the most in Europe are Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) and Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL).

The above analysts gave reporters a set of data. In the first quarter of 2013, Yingli's European business accounted for 53%, and Trina Solar's European business accounted for 54.1%.

In this regard, a senior Yingli also confirmed to reporters that it has stopped shipping to Europe.

Insiders of JA Solar, a leading PV company, told reporters that Jingao has already reduced its shipment ratio to Europe. In the first quarter, European business accounted for only 27% of JAC's business, while its Japanese market share has reached 38. %.

The situation has also become increasingly unfavorable for Chinese companies. On July 3, India announced that it will launch anti-dumping investigations on solar cells from mainland China, the United States and Taiwan, and will hold a hearing on July 18.

But some Chinese companies are still trying to find a solution.

Croatia has officially joined the European Union since July 1, which means that any solar energy products previously stored in Croatia can be tax-free to European countries.

The above-mentioned Yingli executives admitted that in May and June, Yingli and Artes seized this opportunity and stored a large number of products in Croatia, which saved some losses in this trade war.

The Chinese preliminary ruling is not coming out

The above-mentioned “investigation procedure reference timetable” is referred to as “the anti-dumping investigation on solar-grade polysilicon in the United States and South Korea, and the reference timetable for the investigation of dumping subsidies for anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations on solar-grade polysilicon in the United States and Europe”. The Fair Trade Bureau was released on June 28, 2013.

This table shows that the announcement of the EU's solar-grade polysilicon anti-dumping preliminary ruling will be announced before July 4, but the Ministry of Commerce did not announce it as scheduled.

An industry insider told reporters that the intention of the Ministry of Commerce to launch this timetable is that German polysilicon giant Wacker Chemie had previously written to the Ministry of Commerce to delay the polysilicon double-reverse, and the Ministry of Commerce hopes that WACKER can lobby European component companies to promote price commitment. Achieved.
"If last year Europe proposed a double anti-China PV product, China would quickly put the polysilicon and wine on Europe together, and then the two sides would sit down and negotiate, the effect would be very different. But now China can't file a case for polysilicon. Has the opportunity been delayed, how can the price commitment be discussed?" The above-mentioned insiders told reporters.

Lu Jinbiao also stressed to reporters that the current domestic polysilicon enterprises are legally defending their rights and safeguarding the raw materials foundation of China's photovoltaic industry and semiconductor industry. "Don't use polysilicon as a means of countering the EU. It can only be used as cannon fodder, and the EU does not care."

At present, under the influence of the low-cost strategy of foreign polysilicon enterprises, China's polysilicon enterprises have suffered serious losses. According to data compiled by the reporter, Zhongneng Silicon, which accounts for 87% of the domestic polysilicon market, lost $453 million in 2012 and had liabilities of $5.031 billion.

At the same time, the new energy (NYSE: DQ), which accounts for 5% of the domestic polysilicon market, had a gross profit of -178.5% in the fourth quarter of 2012, a loss of $75.6 million; in the first quarter of 2013, the gross profit was 89% and the loss was $18.7 million. The debt is 300 million US dollars.

The above two companies together account for about 92% of China's polysilicon market share. Since the beginning of this year, the spot price of domestic polysilicon has risen steadily due to the imminent filing of polysilicon double counter-attacks, from 130 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to the current 135 yuan/kg.

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