Net News: As the temperature drops, the smog or the earth reappears. On the other side of the ocean, the hurricane changed one name after another, infesting the peace of mankind. Under the global warming trend, environmental protection is an urgent task. This year, China's environmental protection actions have suddenly increased, especially in July, the specific environmental protection limits of the regions and industries are clear.
Multi-industry factories have become the protagonists of this round of fog battles. Environmental protection targets such as steel, coal, electrolytic aluminum, and titanium bai fen have become hot investments in the capital market. In the case of rare metal, coal, non-ferrous metals and other industrial sectors, the price of products has risen and the investment value has been highlighted: the futures price has risen considerably and the performance of listed companies has been honored. In the next two months, environmental action is expected to remain, is there still investment opportunities in the above sectors?
Environmental protection target investment benefits highlight
At the beginning of June, the trend of commodities entered a reversal. As of now, the Wenhua Finance Industrial Products Index has increased by about 30% since June 1. Among them, the non-ferrous plate increased by 18%, the chemical sector rose by about 16%, and the black sector rose by about 49%.
Analysts believe that the above-mentioned performance of bulk commodities, especially industrial products, cannot be separated from this year's environmental protection policy.
This year, the Ministry of Environmental Protection led the four ministries and commissions, 6 provinces and municipalities jointly issued the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas 2017 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan†(hereinafter referred to as the “Programâ€), aiming to strengthen the prevention and control of urban air pollution in 2+26 cities in winter, and comprehensively reduce the area. Pollution discharge load, involving up to 16 industries.
Haitong Securities' macro research pointed out in a report that since June 2016, the central government has deepened the reform leadership group almost every two meetings, and there will be environmental protection documents, and the environmental protection policy formulation will be significantly accelerated.
In the interview with China Securities Journal, the relevant person in charge of a large non-ferrous enterprise in the northwest region said that this year's environmental protection policy may be the biggest dark horse for non-ferrous enterprises and non-ferrous metals. In the early days of the "plan", everyone did not expect it. Execution is so strict. According to industry insiders, under the influence of the environmental protection plus code superposition supply side reform, this round of electrolytic aluminum production reduction has affected more than 3 million tons of illegal production capacity clearance, and the illegal production capacity shutdown continues. Under the support of supply contraction, the main force of Shanghai Aluminum has been three consecutive yangs since June, and it has risen by 20% in 68 months. Straight Flush data shows that China Aluminium, the leading stock in the a-share aluminum sector, has risen by about 91% over the same period.
Titanium bai fen, titanium slag, titanium bai fen, reduced titanium and other products are high energy-consuming and polluting industries. After the implementation of environmental protection rules, Shandong and Sichuan two titanium bai fen main producing enterprises have successively reduced production and stopped production. Titanium bai fen production fell by more than 30%. In June and July, the same flush data showed that the cumulative share of a share of titanium bai fen concept shares was about 37.2%.
Rare metals have also performed well in this round of environmental protection. According to market participants, after June this year, tungsten-related producers have strictly implemented environmental capacity and implemented production capacity, which has affected the supply. Metal tungsten has been recorded in the past two months. More than 50% increase; some foreign investors pointed out that if the production capacity is strictly controlled, the price may face a higher rise. In addition, due to environmental protection and limited production, the prices of rare metals such as antimony and bismuth, as well as the prices of cobalt and vanadium associated with lithium batteries, have also soared recently.钌, 铱, 铑 are equally amazing, but due to the lack of corresponding investment targets, they are not of concern to ordinary investors.
In terms of coal, from June to August, Wenhua Finance's coal sector price rose by 52%, especially in August, the coal price increase accelerated significantly. Analysts believe that since the end of August, environmental protection and production restrictions have been escalating. Coal mines in Shanxi and other places have stopped production and rectification, which has restricted coal supply and made coal prices strong in the near future.
The drama is far from ending
As the weather turns cold, the smog season is approaching. In the peak season of traditional industrial production, the gold and silver are ten, and the environmental protection drama is still unfinished.
It is understood that in September, the objectives of environmental protection supervision include two aspects. First, before the end of September, whether the air pollutants of so2, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter emitted by all coal-fired boilers in the urban administrative area will implement special emission limits; Whether the localities have completed the production of the peak production plan and the list, and the enterprises that do not perform the peak production in the key industries must check whether the maximum allowable production load has been approved according to the task, and approve or record according to the requirements of the “Programâ€.
After entering October, it is entering the inspection and acceptance stage. The contents include: the completion of the task of banned small scattered and polluting enterprises at the end of October; the coal-fired boilers of 10 tons and below before the end of October, the large stoves of tea stoves and the operating small coal stoves are eliminated. Work completion status; before the end of the year, cement, flat glass, petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, coking, nitrogen fertilizer, printing and dyeing, raw material manufacturing, leather, electroplating, pesticides, agricultural and sideline food processing and other 13 industries, the discharge of permits; Before the end of the year, whether the implementation of the comprehensive emission standards for industrial pollution sources in 8 industries of thermal power, cement, coal, paper, printing and dyeing, sewage treatment plants and waste incineration plants has achieved remarkable results.
According to relevant researchers, this round of central environmental supervision has three different aspects compared with previous environmental supervision: higher level, wider scope and greater intensity.
Li Chao's macro research team at Huatai Securities Research Institute believes that ppi prices may usher in the second half of the year in August-September, considering the impact of capacity and environmental supervision. The most stringent time for environmental supervision is at the stage of entry. The industry price is adjusted in advance as expected. Therefore, the price will be high in two months. September is the high point of ppi, and the highest possible increase is 1.0%. However, this round of environmental protection is very strong, and localities may continue to look back and forth to avoid the resurgence of pollution sources. The gap between supply and demand will not shrink soon, and corporate profits are expected to be sustainable.
Where are the black and chemical sectors?
In terms of the most eye-catching black and chemical sectors in the domestic market, how will the subsequent environmental impacts evolve?
Huang Liqiang, a chemical analyst at Jinshi Futures, said that chemical companies will discharge waste water, waste gas and waste residue in the daily production process, which will pollute the environment if not treated. Some small and medium-sized enterprises are unable to effectively curb environmental pollution due to inadequate environmental protection facilities and extensive management. The national environmental protection inspection has forced enterprises that fail to meet the environmental assessment to stop production, resulting in a shortage of chemical products as a whole. Due to the expansion of capacity in previous years, the domestic chemical industry is already in a serious situation of overcapacity. In fact, environmental inspections have not only eliminated environmental pollution, but also eliminated backward production capacity and cleared production capacity. For most SMEs, environmental protection is not up to standard because of the backwardness of equipment, and it can not be avoided simply by improving subjective enthusiasm. Improving equipment requires a lot of money, which means that these companies are difficult to meet environmental requirements and can be considered as policy-oriented capacity.
In this case, many companies are irreversible, and even if the price of chemicals rises, it is difficult for these companies to start work again. However, from the specific impact, different varieties are affected slightly differently. For pvc, the upstream dian shi is the focus of environmental protection supervision, which directly led to the price increase of dian shi, pushing up the price of pvc. For Achun, the impact is more on downstream formaldehyde and other enterprises, which have caused the decline in demand for Achun. Plastics, pp, pta and other companies are mostly state-owned enterprises or strong private enterprises, which are less affected by environmental protection. Huang Liqiang further explained.
He believes that the current surge in chemical prices is supported by rising costs and low inventories, and on the other hand by market sentiment. However, as prices continue to rise, the basic role of chemical products will appear, and the trend of chemical products will begin to differentiate.
In the black department, Cao Youming, a researcher of the black variety of Hengtai Futures, believes that the environmental protection of the second half of the year will have different effects on different varieties of black. For steel, on the one hand, after the sharp rise in the previous period, and the negative impact of real estate regulation and control, the steel price is indeed necessary to adjust. However, due to the limited production, the impact on supply is relatively greater. Therefore, the high probability of steel prices in the second half of the year will remain at a high level. For coke, due to the large spot price of futures premium, and the production impact of environmentally-friendly and limited-production coke is relatively small, there is a large adjustment pressure on coke futures prices. The price of coking coal and thermal coal is more affected by the upcoming inventory system. At present, the overall inventory of coal is low, and the demand for replenishment in the industrial chain has led to a relatively strong current price. However, the resistance to continued price increases in the future is very large, at least not supported by the policy.
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